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We finished up the week strongly with a profitable grand salami, an ice cold $44 Triple, five Rolling Doubles of $29 x 2, $22, $20 & $76, and four Rolling Pick Threes of $104, $108, $62 & $215.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #4 Wicked Title  Race 6 - #1 Heirloom Kitten


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Aqueduct - 1/15

 

Race  1

1.Have a Heart

2.Liquor

3.Freudian Analyst

#8 HAVE A HEART has shown some nice improvement over his last troika ( partaking in the superfecta in each ), and if you prorate the recent wet track number to his best on a fast surface, then that would put him right in the thick of things this afternoon. There may be some extra value here as well, given the low percentage connections. #5 LIQUOR has hit the board but once in seven lifetime starts, but received the unkindest cut of all since last seen, and may perk up a bit. #9 FREUDIAN ANALYST is a professional maiden ( 35:M-1-3 ), but has been in the money in six straight, and is eligible to land a share once again in a lackluster opening to the week.  NOTE: AS OF 11:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Jennemily

2.Flashndynamite

3.Stand for the Flag

#1 JENNEMILY was a gamely & well clear runner up in this race a tad over a month ago, and aside from having a solid 5:1-2-2 mark when breaking from the innermost two slots, this one has a nice DRF Formulator stat behind her. Over the last 260 weeks, The As-Man is a fat 12:7-1-1-1 wit locally based optional dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta 16-50 days back that are 6-1 or lower ( $3.25+ return on investment ). #3 FLASHNDYNAMITE has a spectacular lifetime ledger of 27:11-3-5, and won by more than half'a dozen the only time she was in a 3rd off the layoff scenario. We like this one's ability to send or rate a bit. #2 STAND FOR THE FLAG gets some class relief today & scored by 3+ in her sole second off the shelf engagement; sensible inclusion. 

 

Race  3

1.The Sicarii

2.Vici

3.Castagno

#3 THE SICARII hasn't done much to get the pulse racing of late, but is back in for a tag this afternoon, and that part is fairly relevant, as this one owns a win & a showing the last two times he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. Recognize that this chap has done his best work going today's distance of ground. Timid choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #1 VICI is a bit of a nibbler by rote, but owns a decent 6:1-0-2-1 record in second off the respite jammies, and has been a part of the triple in four of five events when first to load. Nine year old drops for the third time in four calls to the post. #2 CASTAGNO was a'stumblin & a'bumblin at the onset when making his first start for a new barn, but deserves another shot given the prior running lines.  NOTE: AS OF 11:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Firing Carol

2.Baba

3.Lightfoot Miss

#3 FIRING CAROL can be forgiven the debut ( wet track ) and encountered a bit of trouble in the followup when breaking from a disadvantageous slot. Siblings haven't done much of note, but sire was pretty good, and we like that there's no scary drop. Meeeeeeeekest of choices in a race that's difficult to hug. #5 BABA gets Lasix today for her first dirt start off a "true" break, and has a touch of early hoof. #7 LIGHTFOOT MISS hasn't faced the gate in a couple of months, but closed out the exacta the last time she was on the sand, and lost by merely a half length in her other dirt attempt. Wouldn't be much of a surprise. 

 

Race  5

1.La Negrita

2.Pendolino

3.Dashi

#3 LA NEGRITA ( 6:2-3-1 at The Big A, compared to being 12:0-5-1 at other venues ) takes a slight hike up the ladder after besting N2L foes 33 days back, but that shouldn't be too much of an issue given the career best number posted in said tally. Should sit a perfect trip. #6 PENDOLINO has given some nice accounts of herself over her last septet ( 7:2-1-4 ), and owns a nice record in Ozone Park as well ( 8:1-3-1 ) historically speaking, this one has been about 3.7% better on a fast track than a wet one, do you can feel to upgrade the most recent a bit. #1A DASHI will be brought over today by a trainer who's a poyfect 4 of 4 w/ second off the claim, locally based mid level dirt stock off breaks of less than 51 days ( 45-1 or < ), and the payouts in that sampling were a juicy $7, $18, $21 & $78 !  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 WICKED TITLE  NOTE: AS OF 11:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Tri Saint Lorenzo

2.Road to Meath

3.Blood Moon

#6 TRI SAINT LORENZO was confidently hiked up in class last time out, and either the tougher competition or the stretchout to two turns proved too much to handle, as he finished in the back half of the pack that day. Five year old is dropped down to a more suitable level here, and cuts back to one turn as well; eligible to make amends. #5 ROAD TO MEATH is another going two turns to one this afternoon, and Handal charge has a win & a placing from as many attempts when doing such. Bay gelding usually gives a good account of himself, and deserves a shot back in w/ platers. #4 BLOOD MOON has a nice boxscore in Queens and is 4:2-0-0-1 when cutting back from 2 turns to 1.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 HEIRLOOM KITTEN will be led over by a trainer who's 0-7 with locally based 2nd off teh L/O mid level dirt stock ridden by today's pilot.  NOTE: AS OF 11:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Ragtime Blues

2.Mad Munnys

3.Acker

#3 RAGTIME BLUES ( who hasn't been seen since early October ) got his Polaroid taken the only time he returned off a break in the action, and has the eye cups removed for today's comebacker. When it comes to the latter, Terranova is a sweet 3-11 when doing such to those at 15-1 or undah, with mutuels of $9, $5 & $15. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #2 MAD MUNNYS makes his 2nd start off a hibernation today, and as it would happen, this one has fared well when doing such, as he's 3:2-0-1 in that regards, with BIG payouts of $47 & $48. #9 ACKER is winless on the dirt, but has been ITM in half of his six tries at such, and is 4:1-1-0 when going from green to brown.  NOTE: AS OF 4:53 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 4 & 5 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  8 

1.Noctilucent

2.What's My Category 

3.Kikkerland

#3 NOCTILUCENT finished strongly to secure the show bred at 57-1 in the bow, and the runner up from that affair got the job done next time out. Blinks are now a part of the package, and we like when a trainer ain't "ascared" to make an equipment or medication change after a successful performance, so expect this one to be a touch closer to the pace for today's followup. #6 WHAT'S MY CATEGORY has improved with each passing start, and gets Lasix off of a solid placing for today's 3rd try off the L/O. #9 KIKKERLAND has been working well for today's overture, and 376 Tomlinson figure for the trip aids the cause as well; needn't be much.  



Aqueduct        ( Current ):    25-133     ( $202.10 ) Beatable  Favorites    3-8  ( 37.5% )  Favorites  Win %   48-133   ( 36.1% ) 


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Belmont              ( Final ):     42-267     ( $370.40 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-16  ( 6.3% )   Favorites Win %      90-267   ( 33.2% )  

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 )  Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  0% )        Favorites Win %:    17-53   ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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