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We finished out last week on a profitable note, and pad our flat bet profit for the meet, and now have a positive return on investment for our last 832 races going back more than 5 1/2 months ( last Labor Day weekend ).  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 11:06 P.M. Saturday )


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 2/25

 

Race  1

1.Kikkerland

2.Tuesday's Child

3.Mr. Fantasy

#1 KIKKERLAND displayed marked improvement from his first start to the second, and now has blinkers added by a barn that's 10:4-1-2-1 with locally based maiden claiming dirt stock who were ITM < 38 days back ( $12, $4 x 2 & $7 ). Slight edge. #5 TUESDAY'S CHILD brings a 367 Tomlinson figure in for today's debut, and chestnut chap totes along a bullet out of the gate as well -- which always merits inclusion. #2 MR. FANTASY showed some decent early hoof in the career starter, and January foal is eligible to improve off of that effort. 

 

Race  2

1.Miss Peppina

2.Nicky Scissors

3.Did I Stutter 

These three and no more for all our rolling wagers. #1 MISS PEPPINA has been a part of the superfecta in all her dirt outings but one, and Pletcher charge with some back class is made available for purchase for the first time. Jockey/Trainer combo have been out of sight of late, and filly should be able to work out a nice pocket trip at today's flat mile. #3 NICKY SCISSORS is another steady sort ( 9:1-4-2 ) who is confidently hiked up in class today while getting in light. Not a lot of speed signed on, and this one has a big shot if able to shake clear early on. #5 DID I STUTTER was shipped in from Philadelphia Park a week and a half ago, and went all the way to best maiden platers beneath today's pilot. Front wraps were added that day, so take a peek in the paddock. 

 

Race  3

1.Conformist

2.Bustinmygroove

3.Run Casper Run

#1 CONFORMIST tossed in a real clunker last time out, but they all can't be winners, kid. Gelding was a convincing winner in his lone other start over a glib surface ( followed by two showings ), and is now available for purchase for the 1st time since the score. Will need to break alertly. #5 BUSTINMYGROOVE has improved with each passing start, culminating with a maiden breaking tally over this oval a touch over a month ago. Filly drops a whopping nine pounds off a score, and that's something never to be taken lightly. #3 RUN CASPER RUN was rightfully disqualified on the 5th of the month, and ended up in a new barn after that setdown. Colt takes the obligatory hike up the ladder here, and sizzling Cancel gets the assignment. 

 

Race  4 

1.Production Credit

2.Go Cash

3.Patty O'Marc

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so it would behhove you to tread lightly.  #3 PRODUCTION CREDIT could complete a decent double with the similarly monikered "Movie Score" based on the improved number being shown when administered the miracle drug for the first time, as well as the fact that maidens from this outfit often take some time to get things rolling; price play. #5 GO CASH GO has only bested two in three starts thus far, but displayed some improved early hoof in the most recent and may fare a little better today. #4 PATTY O'MARC is a firster with decent breeding who couldn't land in a softer spot for the curtain raiser. 

 

Race  5

1.Movie Score

2.Cover Photo

3.Suz

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #6 MOVIE SCORE positively blitzed 8K foes right here a week and a half back, and given the figure earned that day, we see no reason why a repeat performance isn't well within reach. #2 COVER PHOTO outran her parimutel offering when completing the exacta when going up against tougher over this oval at the end of January, and seems nicely spotted today. #8 SUZ has only beaten home the chase ambulance in his last duet, but was in excellent form just prior to that, and deserves another shot. 

 

Race  6 

1.American Gentleman

2.Blu Grotto

3.Mr Ghost

#1 AMERICAN GENTLEMAN has gone 36-51-60 in all three dirt starts to date, so the sky's the limit, right? This one underwent a gamut of changes in the most recent ( big drop, first time blinkers and a front wraps addition ), so while a bounce is most definitely possible here, we'll pin our hopes to continued improvement. #3 BLU GROTTO has a lot of zip, and slides down a few rungs on the ladder, while getting the meet's leading jock aboard for the first time; will likely try to outbreak the above early on, and has a big chance if able to do such. #2 MR GHOST hasn't done much in the mornings to get the pulse racing, but we have no qualms in using a Ghostzapper out of an Empire Maker mare w/a 392 Tommy. 

 

Race  7

1.Steam Engine

2.Dark Money

3.Seven Lillies 

#6 STEAM ENGINE appears to be the clear speed of this affair, and bested what is likely to be his main competitor two starts back, and note that that one got his picture taken next time out, improving in the BSP dept. by 1.5 adjusted points. Pre claim pilot comes back ( a positive in our eyes ), and this one's finest work has come at today's distance of ground. #1 DARK MONEY has that type of "declining" record which we've grown to love over the years ( 19:7-3-0 ), as it tells us that this one has a knack for finding the line. Manny Man is reunited with D.M. this afternoon, and they've done purdy well together ( 5:2-1-0-1 ). Sensible once again. #5 SEVEN LILLIES won this race at the end of January, and as she fits snugly into today's conditions, is eligible to try it once again without being put up for sale by Klesaris. 

 

Race  8 

1.In the Zone

2.Pollard's Day

3.Beatthatflew

Today's finale is another affair where we're confident in the one's listed here.   #5 IN THE ZONE is switched to a jockey who's definitely not doing the same of late ( 0-28 run, courtesy of @horseracefansite on Twitter ) but has shown improvement over all three starts over a glib surface, and gets eye cups & the wonder drug for the 1st time here. #6 POLLARD'S DAY was in the rear with the gear with no palpable reason 18 days back, but can be dangerous if able to replicate the penultimate numero. #1 BEATTHATFLEW gets a jockey upgrade off a best Beyer and has to be left in the hopper.  


Aqueduct        ( Current ):    62-319     ( $714.80 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-11( 45.1% ) Favorites  Win %   111-319   ( 34.7% ) ( As of Thursday morning )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:      17-53    ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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