KevinCoxItem


Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis from Belmont Park, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 10/16 - Keeneland - QE II

 

 Race 8 

1.Burning Ambition

2.Empress Josephine ( Ire )

3.Shantisara ( Ire )

Pretty competitive rendition of the QE II this year, but we'll give the slight edge to #1 BURNING AMBITION. Well travelled gal starts at her 5th different venue from 6 trips to the frontside, with the last 4 resulting in her photograph being taken. She's essentially improved with each passing turf heat, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, barn is a tight 4:3-1-0 with graded turf stayers who won less than 68 days ago ( sans Lasix ) and there's a sub category of two fer two right here.  #4 EMPRESS JOSEPHINE (IRE) lost by only a length at 12-1 when making her American debut, and adds blinkers while catching firm ground for the first time. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the BSF's of #3 SHANTISARA (IRE), as this one is getting better and better, & we'd be silly to exclude.  OFF TURF: 5-2-10-1-3

 

Belmont            ( Current ): 42-174  ( $367.40 )  Beatable Favorites    5-22( 22.7% ) Favorites  Win %:   54-174     ( 31% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-51        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-51     ( 51% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017