KevinCoxItem


Nice day for us here yesterday, as for the 4th time in 8 years here, we hit every single rolling bet on the card.

Aside from five profitable winners, we had...

--8 Rolling Doubles of $8, $14, $35, $32, $13, $24 ( cold ), $12 ( cold ) & $10 ( cold )

--7 Rolling Pick Threes of $23, $33, $22, $218, $143, $68 & $10

--2 Rolling Pick Fours of $355 & $142

--2 Rolling Pick Fives of $619 & $108 ( .50 cent bet )

...aaaaand

--3 Exacta Boxes of $49, $75 & $19 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #5 Chris and Dave  Race 3 - #7 Lady Valentine  Race 7 - NOTE: AS OF 1:59, #1A WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 10/29

 

Race  1

1.Diamond Status 

2.Keen Dancer 

3.Mostly Harmless

#2 DIAMOND STATUS was a bit tardy to the party when starting things out on the first of September, but has blinkers added this afternoon in hopes of getting a more alert onset this afternoon. Four of six immediate members of the family tree found the line first in their first dirt attempt, and this one should appreciate the surface transition. #4 KEEN DANCER lands in a soft spot for the overture, and this one is a half to a 5 for 16 dirt dasher ( on a fast track ) who banked more than $88,000, and can land a share. #6 MOSTLY HARMLESS ( by 'Violence' ) has overcome some trouble to close out the triple in both starts to date, and could fare even better with a tidier sojourn. 

 

Race  2

1.Two Thirty Five 

2.Croatian 

3.Musical America

#3 TWO THIRTY FIVE ( which is about the time that we're writing this early Tuesday morning ) has been a popular item at the claim box, having changed addresses after his last duet when eligible for such, and five of seven in that regards. Gelding has a nice "declining" record at today's distance of ground ( 13:5-2-0 ), but has had a propensity for being wide recently, so we'll be hoping for a clean trip. #1 CROATIAN got up in time to best slightly weaker down at the Shore a bit over a month ago, and from a small survey, barn is two fer six with locally based dirt stock who eon 20-50 days back ( $9 & $6 ). #2 MUSICAL AMERICA is a nibbler by rote, but has enough speed to land a share.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 CHRIS AND DAVE fills the bill, as barn is 0-8 in all relevant categories.

 

Race  3

1.Violent Vixen 

2.Tekila

3.Join the Dots

#1 VIOLENT VIXEN displayed improvement from her first dirt start to the next -- both in placing & from a Beyer standpoint, and the jockey/trainer combo have done better in tandem than apart. Slight edge in a race that doesn't quite get the pulse thumping. #6 TEKILA got her photograph taken the only time she was in a 3rd off the layoff spot, and we like that there's no scary drop despite the ugly pair of recent running lines. #5 JOIN THE DOTS is a $150,000 bred animal who went for nearly five times that amount at Keeneland two years ago, so is obviously well meant. This is the first foal out of a winless dam who was sired by the recently pensioned Distorted Humor, and with Medaglia d'Oro on the other side, could obviously be any kind.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 LADY VALENTINE

 

Race  4 

1.Limonite

2.T Loves a Fight

3.Speaker's Corner 

#3 LIMONITE hasn't hit the board over his last half dozen calls to the post, but has done good work at today's distance of ground ( 9:3-1-2 ), and from the smallest of samplings, barn is two fer three with dirt dashers who finished off the board less than 51 days back, with mutuels of $12 & $8. Mildest of selections in a race with no first draft tosses. #4 T LOVES A FIGHT sure has proven to be a wonderful $10,000 claim for Noda, and although he's been winless over the last two years, the 170K+ earned is nothing to sneeze at. Winless jockey doesn't help, but we'll include. #6 SPEAKER'S CORNER had been heading in the right direction before the wheels came off at Philadelphia Park; blinks go on for today's 3rd off the shelf engagement, and will take some pounding at the windows. 

 

Race  5

1.Miss You Ella

2.Beyond the Hype

3.Missy Greer

#9 MISS YOU ELLA merely split the field at 2-1 when somehow managing to go 8 wide in a 9 horse field first time out, but we're feeling good about the DRF Formulator stat backing this one. Over the last 260 weeks, Brown is a nifty 10:6-0-2-2 with 2TS'ers/2T routers at this level who are NOT receiving the miracle drug, and the returns for that study were $5 x 3, $4, $3 & $7. #3 BEYOND THE HYPE hasn't done much in the A.M.'s to get excited about, but the 350 Tomlinson figure for today's dx. aids the cause, as does the fact that of the five immediate family members who tried the turf or poly, fur of them won the first time in doing such. #4 MISSY GREER was a solid runner up when starting things out and has worked sensationally over a yielding Oklahoma turf course last Friday for the return; deserving chalk.  OFF TURF: 12-5-6-10-2

 

Race  6 

1.Iconic Adventure 

2.Hagler

3.Perfect Flight

#1 ICONIC ADVENTURE begins his professional working career today, and homebred by Ghostzapper totes along a jazzy 403 Tommy for the bow. Runner is a half to three multiple winners from four starters to race, and five of the six immediate members above this one went 5:2-0-3 in their initial spins as well. From a trainer aspect, Mott is two for four with those fitting ALL this exact criteria at 14-1 or less ( $9 & $22 ). #5 HAGLER fought the good fight first time out, but as often happens with the babies, was sent to the sidelines just a couple of weeks later. Bullet breeze on the 15th signals readiness, but take a peek in the paddock. #2 PERFECT FLIGHT has been conducting his morning affairs in a professional manner for today's overture, and "The As-Man" is 7:3-1-2 with firsters within all today's parameters ( any jock ), w/ mutuels of $13 & $3 x 2. 

 

Race  7

1.Itsakeyper

2.Kept Waiting

3.Social Whirl

#9 ITSAKEYPER, like so many on this circuit, smacked into the starting apparatus in the most recent, before beating just one to the line in a similar spot. If you're willing to draw a line through that one, then what you have is a win & a placing just prior to that ( the latter on this course ). Worth a shot at a price, despite the Nordic pilot. #7 KEPT WAITING has yet to miss a superfecta, and that includes a win and a showing in both starts off a break in the action. Back to back layoff lines merit a looksie, tho. #3 SOCIAL WHIRL shoots for the grand salami this afternoon, and it's well within reach for a runner who's improved with each and every turf start.  OFF TURF: 2-12-6-1-4   NOTE: AS OF 1:59, #1A WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  8 

1.Spun d'Etat

2.Greatest Love

3.Left Leaning Lucy 

This triad and no more for all our rolling bets.  #1A SPUN D'ETAT ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) returned off a bit of a freshening to go all the way versus beaten claimers right here a baker's dozen days back,  and takes the understandable rise in class here. Front wraps were added for the first time in that event, so take a gander to see if the new bossman left them in place. As for this one having changed outfits after getting her Polaroid taken, the new clan is a jazzy 4 for 5 with freshly purchased mid level dirt equines at this level who won 9-23 days back, and are stepping UP by 50% or more ( $7, $11, $9 & $6 ). #4 GREATEST LOVE aims for the hat trick today and appears to be the only one able to upset the apple cart given the recent figaros. #3 LEFT LEANING LUCY has been a part of the super in 6 of 7 and has a 2:1-0-0-1 ledger when first to load.  NOTE: AS OF 8:39 P.M. THURSDAY, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Flavius

2.Value Proposition ( GB )

3.Emaraaty ( GB )

#6 FLAVIUS lost by less than a length in is only "third off the layoff" try when placing in the Grade 2 Seabiscuit last year, and has done decent work at this trip and on the Widener. Classy sort should be right there late in the game. #11 VALUE PROPSITION (GB) always seems to give a good account of himself, and has a two for four mark on this course; logical. #4 EMARAATY (GB) completes our "All Chad" triple, based on the relatively easy win versus optional foes on the 3rd of September, where two of five comebackers got the job done when next in action ( from four different heats ).  OFF TURF: 5-2-8-10-6  NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-4-11.

 

Race  10

1.Jet Set Juliet

2.Slow Crossing

3.Alpha Jo

#4 JET SET JULIET had a 48 & 1 ( 2/10 ) gate move at Palm Meadows back in May, but was sent to the shelf a bit and has been taking it slow ever since -- until that nice move on 9/17. Mild choice in a wide open nitecap. Rudy has reeeeeeeeeally taken his time in bringing #3 SLOW CROSSING ( 2nd half of his uncoupled entry ) along, as this firster hasn't missed much time on the worktab in accumulating 24 ( ! ) breezes since early April, and filly may have tipped her hand a bit with the 5th best of 50 gate breeze back in May. Repole loses money with a win & a claim here, but he just cares about the "W", so we're expecting a sharp effort. #6 ALPHA JO had the screws tightened a bit for her final workout coming into the curtain riser, and could jazz things up a bit. 

  

Belmont            ( Current ): 56-241  ( $457.40 )   Beatable Favorites    6-25( 24% )   Favorites  Win %:    80-241    ( 33.2% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-53        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-53     ( 49.1% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


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