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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #3 Customerexperience  Race 5 - #3 Jerusalem Gates


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 1/15

 

Race  1

1.Raising Sand

2.Midaswellrun

3.War Novel

#5 RAISING SAND didn't show much in the most recent, but that was over a wet track, and the start prior over a glib surface yielded an adjusted figaro of 58.6 ( versus slightly tougher ), and rates a puncher's chance if able to get back to that effort. #2 MIDASWELLRUN cuts back to a one turn event this afternoon, and that's of some relevance, as he did such in the bow, and after getting waffled at the start, completed the superfecta in a game effort. Fella has never missed the superfecta, and who are we to rock that boat. #4 WAR NOVEL faces open company here, but it's a weak bunch, and can land a share. 

 

Race  2

1.Fast Loaded

2.Belle Tapisserie

3.Getoffmyback

#6 FAST LOADED collected the lion's share of a 30K pot when last seen back in November, and can be all yours for a dime this afternoon. Gelding goes two turns to one for the 1st time here, and rates a slight edge in a heat that's difficult to hug. #3 BELLE TAPISSERIE hasn't been seen since placing against tougher in Kentucky back in the fall, & ended up in a new barn afterwards that day. This one is yet another dropper for the Rice barn, who is on a woeful run of late on this circuit, but we'll chunk in. #5 GETOFFMYBACK is a bit of an in and outer, but digs it here. 

 

Race  3

1.Mia Bea Star

2.I'm Listening

3.Bee Bit

#7 MIA BEA STAR has hit the board in four of her last five dirt outings, and after a decent runner up finish right here on New Year's Eve, takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged by Randi for 14 large. Aforementioned bossman only wins 5% of the time, but is a sweet 9:5-0-2-1 with freshly purchased dirt stock at this locale who hit the board 8-27 days back that are 16-1 or less ( $9, $14, $7 x 2 & $15 ), with the all important sub category of 3 fer 7 w/those doubling up in class ( or more ). #4 I'M LISTENING is backed by a tidy but tight trainer stat which has this shedrow at 2 for 4 with dirt dashers who scored 48-50 days back & are 30-1 or beneath. #2 BEE BIT hasn't been seen since placing on the lawn in October, but won his lone dirt start off the pine, & is a factor if sound.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE is backed by a 1-11 trainer stat in all relevant categories.

 

Race  4 

1.Rooski

2.Lady Milagro

3.Tweaqued

#2 ROOSKI shoots for the hat trick today, and as this one is now a poyfect two of two when going over the brown stuff, we'd say it's well within reach -- especially with the addition of Lasix. #1 LADY MILAGRO got smacked around at the onset and just missed getting all the marbles when losing to the above about a month back, but as that one is getting a favorable post switch of four slots, we see no reason for a reversal of fortunes. #5 TWEAQUED went coast to coast like butter and toast when starting things out on December 17th, and the 391 Tomlinson figure tells us there's ample room for improvement. 

 

Race  5

1.Breaking Stones

2.Mr. Fidget

3.Bellamy Dolce

#5 BREAKING STONES has been a different animal since being freshened up a bit, & is showing a 5th best of 181 morning move smack dab between the last showing & today; could be sitting on a good one for today's third start off the bench. #4 MR. FIDGET has outrun his odds the last three times he's visited the frontside, having completed the super at 9-1, 91-1 & 41-1 -- Jackie climbing aboard can only help matters. #8 BELLAMY DOLCE completed the triple the only time he was in a 3rd off the L/O spot, and his sole win has come on this strip as well.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 JERUSALEM GATES fills the bill, as Rice os 0-23 with dirt stock off 50 day layoffs.

 

Race  6 

1.Great Workout

2.Orb in the Tower

3.Roman Empire

#8 GREAT WORKOUT got up in time to best what we would consider to be a similar allotment on 12/18, bringing this one's mark in Ozone Park to two for three. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Atras is a zesty 11 for 19 with mid level dirt stock who won less than 51 days ago that are 8-1 or undah ( $2.72 ROI ), and there's a sub category of 3 for 5 with second off the claim equines. #1 ORB IN THE TOWER is one of two on a track labeled FST, and goes green to brown & two turns to one for the first time. Seems to be properly spotted. #4 ROMAN EMPIRE finds himself at his lowest level to date and may grab a check. 

 

Race  7

1.Golden Plume

2.Kept Waiting

3.My Roxy Girl

#1 GOLDEN PLUME takes her initial spin on the main in this spot, and as she's just about as equally bred for it as the verde -- & given her fair efforts over that stuff -- we'll give her a slight edge. You can essentially say "ditto" in regards to the #6 KEPT WAITING, as Falcone charge should handle today's surface switch with aplomb; adding to the allure is the seven ITM finishes from her last octet. Note this barn's insane 26:14-5-3-2 run on this circuit with dirt stock at 5-1 or beneath ( going back to June 26th ). Well, it's no secret by now that we're the unofficial president of the 'MY ROXY GIRL' fan club, as this best valued NYB female of all time goes over the $730,000 mark with a score today, and it's not just her 54:11-14-11-4 lifetime mark that endears her to us, but how she tries so hard each & every time. Leaving in the unders today, as the Rice barn is an igloo in N.Y. these days. 

 

Race  8 

1.Leeloo

2.Thinking It Over

3.Thin Legs

Wide, wide open feature on tap, so tread lightly.   #6 LEELOO showed some stark improvement second time out, and while that could have been attributed to the goo, this one is in fact better bred for a fast surface, so we're thinking that day's result wasn't an aberration. Good guy Duggan could have a nice one here. #9 THINKING IT OVER was extremely professional when scoring right outta the box, and that may have taken a bit of starch out of the collar, as she wasn't on the worktab for three weeks afterwards. Obvious player if fully cranked up. #3 THIN LEGS has been beset by back to back layoff lines but has some nice early zip in a race devoid of much & could make things interesting early. 

 

Race  9 

1.Mango Beach

2.Wickosity

3.My Inspiration 

#7 MANGO BEACH popped & stopped in the bow, but gets the "Big L" administered for the 1st time, and that's fairly pertinent, as barn scored with their only 2TS'ers at this level who missed the baccala 22-50 days back that are now getting Lasix ( $32 ). Late DD for D.D. ? #3 WICKOSITY completed the tri when last in action up at the Lakes, & is another getting juice. #9 MY INSPIRATION debuts today, and needn't be much to make an impression here.  



Aqueduct          ( Current ): 41-138  ( $415.50 )   Beatable  Favorites    4-21 ( 19.1% )   Favorites   Win %:    52-138     ( 37.7% ) ( As of Friday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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