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Profitable hat trick for us on Frida ( $11 & $7 x 2 ) to go along with an Ice Cold $26 Exacta, an Ice Cold $24, Double, two Rolling Doubles of $170 & $66, and a $481 Rolling Pick Three. 

We now have a 147:44-20-15 mark on the stand ( $294 Bet/$439.60 Returned ), as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least January 30th.

Additionally, we maintain our streak with one winner each day of the meet, with multiple winners on 14 of 17 of 'em.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 1/16

 

Race  1

1.King of Hollywood

2.Fazaro

3.Necromancer

#6 KING OF HOLLYWOOD had a little bit of trouble when last in action, but was still able to best half the field at 14-1 on the lawn. Colt takes the biggest drop in the game today, and from the tiniest of samplings, barn is 2 for 2 when going green to brown with sprinters who missed the money 29-57 days ago ( $3 & $4 ). #4 FAZARO had an awful onset to the bow, and after beating home just a pair, is now made available for purchase for the first time. Lasix now a part of the equation, and the 371 Tommy tells us to give this one another chance. After finishing in the back half of the pack in his turf tries, #7 NECROMANCER performed a bit of "magic" when being transitioned to the dirt 37 days back, closing out the tri at 14-1. Chap has been gelded since, & is another receiving the wonder drug. 

 

Race  2

1.Stencil

2.Linny Kate

3.Summary Judgement

Not really feeling the love from this event, so tread lightly. #2 STENCIL has been claimed after her last pair, and the most recent makes some sense, as this one is a bit better bred for the dirt than the poly, & we like the confident hike in class despite flopping when last in action. Mild choice. #6 LINNY KATE has partaken in the superfecta in all three sand starts to date & is a sensible "unders" candidate. #3 SUMMARY JUDGEMENT went all the way in her first start for the new outfit, and perhaps the lightbulb stays on for this one.

 

Race  3

1.Greatest Love

2.Awesome Indra

3.Sweet Mia

#5 GREATEST LOVE was in the rear with the gear when facing toughies in her first start off the purchase, and is now dropped down below the price claimed from two back. Given the day rate & other expenses, filly would need to win here in order for the connections to show a profit -- with another claim -- and we'll lean the way of the hot barn. #4 AWESOME INDRA has been a popular item at the claim box of late, as this one has had to leave a forwarding address after seven of her last nine races when eligible for such, and given her speed and soundness, we can see why. %YO has done well at the trip & we'll chunk in. #2 SWEET MIA rounds out the top three. 

 

Race  4 

1.Laochi

2.Costanti

3.Miss Malala

#2 LAOCHI ( who should be no worse than second here for all you place punters ) has yet to miss a superfecta, and that includes an honest showing in a stakes here a month ago at a robust 44-1 offering. Logical selection except for the fact that Cancel has been making some pretty bad decisions out there of late. #4 COSTANTI hasn't done much in the mornings to get the pulse racing, but owns a 389 Tommy for the trip, & could be the main threat to the above. #7 MISS MALALA was nowhere to be found in the career starter, but Jimmy's not known for having his firsters fully cranked up, and the rail is never easy for a debuter ( especially at seven panels ). Wouldn't be shocked to see some improvemnet w/today's outside slot. 

 

Race  5

1.Royal Realm

2.Prayer Book

3.Chase the Cat

These three and no more for all our rolling action...   #3 ROYAL REALM brings along a couple of monstah figaros ( against tougher ) today, and looms a solid 1-2-3 player for those who like to grind out a small show profit. #1 PRAYER BOOK has gone 30-48-77 in his troika of dirt engagements to date, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Slides in four slots off the maiden breaker, and as this one is better suited for a glib surface than the wet one he just scored on, welllll...  You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figs of #2 CHASE THE CAT, as this one seems to be figuring things out as he goes along, and is MUCH better bred for the brown than the green, so watch out, suckahs !

 

Race  6 

1.Competitive Saint

2.Wudda U Think Now

3.Secret Rules

Another race where our listed troika should suffice...   #1 COMPETITIVE SAINT ( scratched Friday for this ) has been in the back half of the pack over his last duet, but found the line first in his sole dirt attempt way back when ( 81.3 adj. ) and could rebound at a price. #3 WUDDA U THINK NOW is on a 4:2-2-0 run over a track labeled FST & is a deserving fave. #5 SECRET RULES hasn't been in action since the 1st of May, but has closed out the exacta in both "true" starts off the shelf, and has yet to miss the board at The Big A; fella totes the lightest impost of his career.

 

Race  7

1.Playwright

2.Flowers for Lisa

3.Marble Moon

#8 PLAYWRIGHT came along belatedly to complete the triple in this race 38 days in the rear, and slides in a couple'a slots while shedding 16oz.; mild choice. #3 FLOWERS FOR LISA was a lively runner up when going against slightly weaker on National Hangover Day, and cuts back to one turn this afternoon, which is of some relevance, as this one has partaken in the superfecta five of six times when doing such. #6 MARBLE MOON may come along late for a slice of marble loaf.  

 

Race  8 

1.Miss Leslie

2.It's Cold in Dehere 

3.Exotic West

#5 MISS LESLIE shoots for the grand salami here, and it's quite doable, given the way this one has shown drastic improvement over the last pair. Factor in the sweet "declining" marl of 16:7-2-1, and you have the makings of a solid fave. #6 IT'S COLD IN DEHERE has won three of four...four of six...and is a poyfect two of two at today's distance of ground. Leaving beneath as Linda Rice ( yes, STILL awaiting a decision on her license revocation ) is on a rotten streak here of late with her dirt runners ( 2-40, with MANY of them droppers ). #1 EXOTIC WEST draws snugly after getting up versus starter foes and is eligible to surprise. 

 

Race  9 

1.Bench Walk

2.Silvermill

3.Miracle Nicky

#10 BENCH WALK only beat two home at first asking ( a horse & the chase ambulance ) but undergoes a bevy of changes here -- blinks, juice, & the steepest drop in the biz. The lattermost of those is what piques our interest, as Rudy Rod is a crisp 5-12 when doing such to his 2TS'ers who were OTB < 51 days in the past ( 32-1 or below ), with payoffs of $6, $4, $3, $8 & $11. #3 SILVERMILL will be led over by a 16% shotcaller who's 3-7 when going T to D & long to short with those at 30-1 or undah ( 27-57 days ). The mutuels for that survey were $11, $12 & $3, & this one undergoes the same changes as our top selection. #5 MIRACLE NICKY was a crisp runner up at this level on 12/10 & factors once again. 


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 44-138  ( $439.60 )   Beatable  Favorites    4-21 ( 19.1% )   Favorites   Win %:    53-147     ( 36.1% ) ( As of Sunday morning ) 


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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