KevinCoxItem


Just one chalky winner on Sunday ( with EIGHT faves coming in ).

We're still 182:49-28-23 on the stand ( $364 Bet/$481 Returned ), as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least February 6th. 

Additionally, we've had winners on 19 of 20 days, and multiple winners on 17 of 20 cards.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #5 Saratoga Kisses  Race 6 - #8 Jerusalem Gates


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 1/27

 

Race  1

1.Any Minute

2.R Boy Cheekum

3.Analysis

#4 ANY MINUTE was a well beaten but well clear runner up in a near identical spot three weeks back, and the Beyer from that day supersedes anything that anyone in this affair has posted to date. From a DRF Formulator aspect, Rudy Rod is a nifty 8:5-2-0-1 with locally based maiden claiming male dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta less than three fortnights back ( 3YO's ) @ 2-1 or less. The payouts for that study were $5 x 2, $4 x 2 & $3, and fella ain't facing much. #5 R BOY CHEEKUM closed out the tri at 38-1 behind the above in their recent tangle, and adds Lasix off that effort. Despite a troubled trip, #7 ANALYSIS bested half the the field first out, and draws ideally for the followup. 

 

Race  2

1.Printrack

2.Silipo

3.Always Charming 

We don't have the best of reads here, so exercise caution.  #1 PRINTRACK lived up to his odds on billing when gong all the way vs. maiden platers right here a month & a half ago, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Juice now a part of the makeup, and a repeat is well within reach. #5 SILIPO was nicely spotted for the comebacker at Philadelphia Park, when gutsily holding on for the score to the tune of 35 clams. The figaro came back a bit lowish, but is eligible to continue the upswing for today's 2nd start off the pine. #2 ALWAYS CHARMING is one of two here & gets the big "L" for the 1st time.  NOTE: AS OF 2:34 A.M. THURSDAY, WE AR EFLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS,

 

Race  3

1.Gringotts

2.Keepmyeyeontheboys 

3.Saratoga Beauty

#4 GRINGOTTS handled the class hike quite well in her first off the snag try, when completing the tri two weeks back, and is confidently moved up the ladder once again. Mild choice. #3 KEEPMYEYEONTHEBOYS hasn't faced the starter in more than seven flips of the calendar, but is 3:1-1-0 off a respite on a fast surface, and gets a hot pilot for the comebacker. #5 SARATOGA BEAUTY has been quite the transient of late, as this 5 year old has had to leave a forwarding address after each of her last seven outings, and despite finishing well behind My Roxy Girl last out, we'll include because of the snappy 3 fer 6 mark on this strip.  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Due to a gate scratch in R3, #2 will be our 3rd selection.

 

Race  4 

1.Amazing Dream 

2.Royally Blue

3.No More Mischief

Another tough race on tap. #1 AMAZING DREAM has gone 8-33-45 in all her fast track starts to date, culminating w/a sheepskin procuring effort right here 41 days in the rear, and gal slides in to the wood while having the miracle drug administered now. #7 ROYALLY BLUE got destroyed in her first foray against victress's, but that's never easy for a maiden breaker, and she takes a bit of a drop while retaining the pilot. #2 NO MORE MISCHIEF ( uncoupled entrymate with 'Dream ) is another who flopped when going up against winners after the maiden win, but can make amends in today's second try off the L/O.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 SARATOGA KISSES fills the bill, as Rudy is 1-11 in all applicable categories.

 

Race  5

1.Good Skate

2.King Of Hollywood

3.Good Tip

#2 GOOD SKATE comes in today off of back to back lifetime best figs, and jockey/trainer combo have done well together; logical, especially with the Lasix addition. #1 KING OF HOLLYWOOD will be brought over by a 15% shotcaller who more than triples that rate with 3YO runners of this ilk who hit the board less than 22 days back ( while receiving Lasix ), and the mutuels were $3, $4 & $7. #8 GOOD TIP ( uncoupled barnmate with our top selection disappointed in the overture, but the 363 Tomlinson ( the 2nd best in the field ) tells us to give this one another chance. 

 

Race  6 

1.Actuary

2.Breaking Stones

3.Mr. Fidget

#6 ACTUARY has been kept in jail since the 12/17 purchase, and after earning an okay # that day, comes back at the same level. From a small sampling, barn is two of five with freshly bought mid level dirt dashers who missed the baccala 32-50 days back ( $12 & $22 ). #4 BREAKING STONES has been a different animal since being freshened up a bit, & is showing a 5th best of 181 morning move smack dab between the last showing & today; could be sitting on a good one for today's third start off the bench. #5 MR. FIDGET has outrun his odds the last three times he's visited the frontside, having completed the super at 9-1, 91-1 & 41-1 -- Jackie climbing aboard can only help matters.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 JERUSALEM GATES

 

Race  7

1.Make It in Ny

2.Straight Skinny

3.Therisastormbrewin

#3 MAKE IT IN NY has partaken in the superfecta in 6 of his last 7, and best work has come in this zip code. Meek selection for a barn that's shown immediate success with 4 of their last 6 purchases. #2 STRAIGHT SKINNY was a solid runner up versus conditional claiming foes on New Year's Eve Eve, and did such despite encountering a bit of trouble; lands in a fairly soft spot. #6 THERISASTORMBREWIN has a 2-8 mark at AQU ( compared to 1-14 otherwise ) and lost by just a half the only time he went from one turn to two. 

 

Race  8 

1.Manifest Destiny

2.Writer's Regret

3.Dream Bigger

#7 MANIFEST DESTINY displayed little in the most recent, but one thing we've learned over the years is never to fall asleep on this animal when he's entered by Younghans for a tag on the sand, as he's a jazzy 4-20 in that department ( 3-38 otherwise ) -- and just look at the prices -- $27, $91, $64 & $124 !!  Additionally, the aforementioned shotcaller is two of four with mid level dirt stock who were OTB 32-50 days back that are 72-1 or undah ( $93 & $124 ), and we can't continue further without a little 'Family Guy' Manifest Destiny https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmzsSNYE900 !  #9 WRITER'S REGRET was a decently clear runner up in his sole start off a respite, and barn is 2 for 5 with AQU based mid level dirt entrants off breaks of 51-79 days ( 34-1 or beneath ), with returns of $19 x 2 ). #4 DREAM BIGGER rounds out the top three.  


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 49-182  ( $481 )   Beatable  Favorites    4-22( 18.2% )   Favorites   Win %:    68-182     ( 37.4% ) ( As of Wedneday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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