KevinCoxItem


Profitable day for us here yesterday, with a pair of winners ( $13 & $4 ), an Ice Cold $37 Quinella, an Ice Cold $75 Exacta, an Ice Cold $24 Double, and a successful Beatable Favorite.

We're 190:51-28-26 on the stand ( $380 Bet/$498 Returned ), as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least February 6th. 

Additionally, we've had winners on 20 of 21 days, and multiple winners on 18 of 21 cards.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #4 Violent Point


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


of

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 1/28

 

Race  1

1.Lucky Brody

2.McQueen's Bullitt

3.Midaswellrun

#6 LUCKY BRODY came along decently to pick up 3rd place money in this race on 12/19, and from a DRF Formulator stat perspective, 16% barn more than triples that rate ( 2 for 6 ) with locally based runners of this ilk who crashed the party 16-50 days back that are 10-1 or undah ( $7, $11 & $4 ). Slight edge despite the 4% pilot. #3 MCQUEEN'S BULLITT was a gamely runner up when going long at Grantville three fortnight's back, and shedrow that clicks at a normative 16% batting average is a snappy 5-15 with maiden claiming dirt stock who crashed the board off of this kind of break ( 2X to 1X  ) @ 9-1 or undah. #7 MIDASWELLRUN hasn't been seen in a while, but has yet to miss a superfecta & is available for purchase for the first time. 

 

Race  2

1.Efffiemeister

2.Gentle Annie

3.Violent Point

#5 EFFIEMEISTER hasn't been seen since flopping against tougher back in early December, but in all fairness, got smacked around a bit at the onset that day, and drops to a level yet seen this afternoon. All you need to do to find something positive is go back to the penultimate try, and we'll do that in search of a nice price. #2 GENTLE ANNIE ( who should be no worse than second here for all you place punters out there, and drops a touch after a nose beat for a barn that's looking at a possible dismissal from the grounds by NYRA. BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #4 VIOLENT POINT comes in today as one of the MANY Rice ( whose license revocation is still awaiting final determination ) runners taking the plunge these days, & while we'll be using, you have to take a gander pre race because of the recent voided claim.

 

Race  3

1.Rooski

2.Lady Milagro

3.Tweaqued

#3 ROOSKI shoots for the hat trick today, and as this one is now a poyfect two of two when going over the brown stuff, we'd say it's well within reach -- especially with the addition of Lasix. #6 LADY MILAGRO got smacked around at the onset and just missed getting all the marbles when losing to the above about a month back, but as that one is getting a favorable post switch of two slots, we see no reason for a reversal of fortunes. #4 TWEAQUED went coast to coast like butter and toast when starting things out on December 17th, and the 391 Tomlinson figure tells us there's ample room for improvement.

 

Race  4 

1.Rock Lobster

2.Oh My Belle

3.Strong Alpha

#10 ROCK LOBSTER was a bit tardy to the party when starting things out a fortnight ago, and ended up taking the overland route before finishing in the back of the pack. Blinkers are now a part of the package for a gal who draws better, and Rudy Rod is a nifty 6-13 w/ female 2TS'ers going short on the local sand who missed the baccala off of this kind of break ( & are receiving Lasix ). The winners for that sampling were 4 x 2, $12 x 2, $9 & $8. #4 OH MY BELLE begins her working life in this spot, and while the works are just so so, the 371 Tommy for the trip stands out a bit for a clan that's three of five with Ozone Park firsters under these conditions ( getting the big "L" ) with prices of $4, $6 & $9. #1 STRONG ALPHA can grab a slice at a price with a quicker onset.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Sweet Solare 

2.Cupids Girl

3.Fleur Elyse

#3 SWEET SOLARE is an extremely well bred runner starting things out in this spot, and does such with a 404 Tomlinson figure and a bullet gate move ( which always merits inclusion ) in tow. This is the first foal out of a dam who was 1-7 in dirt sprints over a glib surface, and of the remaining members of the family tree that we were able to look at, two won at first asking, & two won in the followup to the bow. #6 CUPIDS GIRL has had a bit of trouble in both starts to day, but has by no means been disgraced, and we'll pin our hopes to a tidier trip. #1 FLEUR ELYSE rounds out the tri. 

 

Race  6 

1.Joycee Haz Pizazz

2.High Command

3.Mi Tres Por Ciento ( Chi )

#5 JOYCEE HAZ PIZAZZ will be brought over today by a bossman who's a poyfect 4 fer 4 w/those claimed 51-61 days back ( $18, $7, $9 & $7 ), and that's enough for us. #2 HIGH COMMAND was well beaten in this race on the 9th of December, but hard trying 6YO was a part of the super in her octet prior to that, and there's a decent enough trainer stat in play with this one to suggest a rebound may be in the works. Over the last 260 weeks "Grus" is on the "mark" with his bottom level dirt stack who missed the money 36-50 days back, as he's 5:3-1-0 w/ that type ( $7, $9 & $13 ); Jackie has had a decent meet, ( we've been aboard for two winners ) especially if you exclude a few hopeless runners. #11 MI TRES POR CIENTO (CHI) drops for the 4th straight time today and totes the lightest impost of his career

 

Race  7

1.American Rule

2.Vintage Hollywood

3.Lost in Rome

We're not really feeling the heat from this deal, soooo.....  #7 AMERICAN RULE has only beaten home the chase ambulance over his last pair, but has been kept in jail since being snagged on 12/11, & returns at the same level for a barn who has been doing "miraculous" work with dirt dashers on this circuit ( 4 of their last 8 ). Meeeekest of selections. #8 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD has been out of form since July, but gets a nice upgrade in the saddle & has done okay @ the trip. #6 LOST IN ROME closed out the tri in this race behind a next out winner two back ( at 27-1 ) & may jazz things up beneath.

 

Race  8 

1.South Africa

2.Bronx Bomber

3.Gongheifatchoy 

Like the above, this is a good time to go walk the marmot.  #4 SOUTH AFRICA went all the way the only time he was in a 3rd off the layoff spot, and gets in with a feather. #6 BRONX BOMBER has been camera shy for nearly two years, but likes the seagulls here & can cash a check. #7 GONGHEIFATCHOY makes his first start in this "Happy Nee Year", but was doing good things when last seen, & is 3:1-1-0 off the bench. 

 

Race  9 

1.Mango Beach

2.Wickosity

3.My Inspiration

#3 MANGO BEACH popped & stopped in the bow, but gets the "Big L" administered for the 1st time, and that's fairly pertinent, as barn scored with their only 2TS'ers at this level who missed the baccala 22-50 days back that are now getting Lasix ( $32 ). Price play for an underrated Duggan. #9 WICKOSITY has ( for this allotment ) some okay #'s, & is put up for sale for the first time this afternoon. Gets Lasix as well. #4 MY INSPIRATION 

 

Aqueduct          ( Current ): 51-190  ( $481 )   Beatable  Favorites    4-23( 17.4% )   Favorites   Win %:    73-190     ( 38.4% ) ( As of Friday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


coxbel2019