Just one chalky winner yesterday, but we're still on a 23 for 59 run of late, and are still beating the takeout for the meet, with five days remaining

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - Hennig Entry  Race 10 - #9 Lifetime of Chance

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/18


Race  1


2.Reunion Tour

3.West Star

We're seeing today's opener as easy as 1-2-3...   #1 STEERAGE tossed in a bit of a clunker last month, but ended up in a new barn afterwards, and has been kept in jail since, making him eligible to be entered for the same price today. The good news, tho, is that he's rebounded after his other two poor efforts with decent performances, and has since lost two eye cups and two pistachios. Chance to rebound with a dearth of speed signed on. #2 REUNION TOUR has hit the board in five straight and 11 of 25, and while he makes all kinds of sense ( and shouldn't be worse than 3rd ) here, we're not quite sure what gets him over the hump. #3 WEST STAR has partaken in the super in four of five & can land a share. 


Race  2

1.B C Glory Days

2.Got the Gold

3.Jet Speed

#4 B C GLORY DAYS nearly went all the way in a similar placement a baker's dozen days back, and while this chestnut chap is a nibblah by nature ( 26:1-5-6 ), this isn't the strongest of fields, and could go coast to coast. #1 GOT THE GOLD is reacquainted w/ blinks today, and has hit the board in three of four starts when breaking from the pine over a glib surface. Just may sit a decent stalking trip. #3 JET SPEED was in the rear with the gear when taking the obligatory hike in class after being snagged two starts ago, but partook in the tri in both starts at this level just prior to the purchase, and is eligible to rebound. 


Race  3


2.Hot Fudge

3.Unsolved Mystery

#3 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE sheds a whopping dozen pounds off a solid placing when facing what we would consider to be a tougher allotment 36 days in the past, and given the Ol' Grey Mare's fondness for this strip ( 16:6-3-2 ), we're betting the weight break gets her over the hump this afternoon. Oh yeah -- from a trainer stat perspective. Linda Rice ( who is STILL awaiting final resolution on her license revocation ) is 4-12 with optional stock who were claimed ( and finished in the money ) 42-50 days back, going off at 8-1 or below. #2 HOT FUDGE returned off a "Double Christmas" hibernation to pick up the lion's share over this oval last out, and as she flopped in her lone 2nd off the shelf attempt, we'll keep this second half of the uncoupled entry w/the above in the "unders". #6 UNSOLVED MYSTERY put forth an honest showing at thios level most recently, and can land a share once again. 


Race  4

1.Cheeky Tico

2.Loose Goose


#4 CHEEKY TICO has yet to miss a superfecta when going one turn, and J/T combo have fared decently together. Mild choice in a bit of an uninspiring race. #7 LOOSE GOOSE has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his toosh for the first time, and Franco sticks around for this Pletcher charge ( by 'Will Take Charge' ) making his 3rd start off the bench. Will likely be overbet, but we s'pose we have to include. #6 FRENCHBORO goes from an apprentice to a journeyman for a barn who's won four of their last seven in Ozone Park ( $58, $29, $5 & $116 ), including three straight.  NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  5

1.Save Grace

2.Run Devil


#5 SAVE GRACE returned off a three month respite to play the fade at odds on in this race, but that was her first try at eight panels, and will likely move forward off the effort; encouraging to see Franco staying aboard. #4 RUN DEVIL has been a different animal since switching barns after a 15 month hibernation, ringing up a 4:1-1-2 mark for new shotcaller, Weaver. Sporadically raced six year old comes in having improved ( from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint ) over her last quintet on the main, and while a reversal is always possible after the recent blinker addition, we'll chunk in. #1 VODKATINI has yet to finish out of the triple on the sand, and has done even better at today's distance of ground. We dig that she's claim protected after the last pair. 


Race  6


2.Clover Street

3.Good Accelebrate

#5 NORTHWAY ( likely named after a Saratoga visitor ) bested half the field at first asking, and the slightly above Tomlinson tells us that there's room for some improvement here. From a DRF Formulator POV, trainer has a Handal on the situation when it comes to his second time starters who hit the board 22-47 days in the rear at 19-1 or less, as he's 8:5-0-1 in that area ( $7, $12, $7 & $4 x 2 ), with a sub category of 3-3 w/ this pilot astride. #8 CLOVER STREET has Lasix added when coming back off a bit of a break, and overcame some early trouble to finish a daylight clear runner up. Not quite sure why the apprentice got the boot here, but we'll incorporate, nonetheless. #2 GOOD ACCELEBRATE as good as any for the show dough. 


Race  7

1.The Revenger

2.Swift Tap


#8 THE REVENGER has only bested three in his last duet, but gets a jockey upgrade this afternoon, and was photogenic the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt. If not today, then it could be back to the Lakes for this one. #10 SWIFT TAP is another who's out of form these days, and another who's yet to have seen these depths, but digs the trip & strip, and we'll toss in the hopper. #6 SCOTTY ( 3 for 15 at The Big A, compared to Oh-fer-14 otherwise ) can grab a slice. 


Race  8

1.Hush of a Storm

2.Whittington Park


A heat where our listed troika should suffice.  #4 HUSH OF A STORM didn't display much in the return, but hung up an adj. 96.6 in her sole "Second off the L/O" deal, and trainer/jockey combination are a tight 5:2-2-1 on the brown stuff ( $4, $6 & a 21-1 showing ). #5 WHITTINGTON PARK has been a part of the super in all his tries but one, and is reunited with the pilot from his last victory. Legit chance off the recent showing. #2 SUNDAESWITHSANDY bested a somewhat tougher grouping by a country mile five weeks back, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Pre claim jock returns ( something we always dig ), and it's hard to ignore the solid mark at the trip/strip.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: HENNING ENTRY - Both halves of this coupling fill the bill, as the top part doesn't make our first cut, and the bottom half is "backed" by an 0-12 trainer stat, as barn owns that mark with optional dirt stock at 2-1 or less who were IN the money less thn 54 days back. 


Race  9

1.Downtown Mischief

2.Tappin Josie

3.Hot Little Thing

Another deal in which our posted selections are likely enough for all your rolling action.  #3 DOWNTOWN MISCHIEF has done nothing wrong in her two scores to date, and as she's just as equally bred over a fast track as a wet one, we're seeing another strong effort as being quite doable. #1 TAPPIN JOSIE ( who should be no worse than 3rd, for all you sow grinders out there ), has won three straight, five of six, is 5:3-1-1 when breaking from the innermost three slots, and we feel 6-1 is a tremendous overlay in this spot. #2 HOT LITTLE THING has gone 52-72-77 in her triad of dashes to date, so right off the batm who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Obvious factor if sound and fully cranked up. 


Race  10


2.Art of Courage

3.October Bliss

We were all over #4 RUNANDSCORE at 9-1 last time out, and colt looked finished on the turn, but ended up showing a classic "Z" pattern that day, when losing 5 3/4 lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining 8 3/4 lengths from that point to the line ( while galloping out nicely ). Colt is bred to be a tad better on a glib surface, and barn owns an 8:4-2-3 ledger with dirt maidens who were ITM less than two fortnights back, who are not getting the wonder drug. #3 ARTOFCOURAGE displayed little in the bow, but given the pedigree, we'll afford him another shot. #6 OCTOBER BLISS has been claimed after each of his two trifecta finishes, and is protected against such here, while having the hood slapped on. Logical, despite the hike.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 LIFETIME OF CHANCE, as Rice is 0-11 with Aqueduct based sand sprinters who were 1-2 3 24 to 50 days in the rear, at this level, ridden by Lezcano. 

Aqueduct            ( Current ):   84-324  ( $552.10 )   Beatable  Favorites: 5-12 ( 42.5% )  Favorites Win %:    117-324 ( 35.8% )( As of Saturday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ):      0-6       ( $0 )          Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                    Favorites Win %:      0-6        ( 0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3564-17968 ($30,467.70)  Beatable Favorites : 425-1575( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6773-18041( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3648-18596  ( $31,280.20 )Beatable Favorites : 440-1641( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 6783-18285 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout