So so day for us here on Sunday with a Rolling Pick 5 of $1,526 ( .50 cent bet ), a Rolling Pick 4 of $551, and two Ice Cod Exactas of $15 & $8.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 10/28


Race  1

1.No Deal

2.Quality Stones 

3.Extra Effort

#1 NO DEAL has been transferred back to Wayne Potts from his "assistant" after serving a suspension recently, and the first thing he does is drop this one to her lowest level to date. That last part is some some relevance, as he's 3 for 8 when dropping his mid level dirt stock ( who missed the board < three fortnights ago ) by 50% or more ( $6 x 2 & $4 ), and there's a sub category of 2-3 in Elmont. #2 QUALITY STONES is 3:1-1-0 in her starts off a break in the action, and from a DRF Formulator standpoint, Falcone is no snowman when it comes to those he claimed 51-75 days back that he spots on the sand at this level, as he's score with half of his six runners ( $3, $5 & $15 ). #6 EXTRA EFFORT has been an extremely popular item at the claim box over the last half'a calendar, as she's had to leave forwarding addresses after each of her five trips to the frontside. Filly has speed to spare & should be in the thick of things late. 


Race  2

1.Hit the Nail


3.Tales of Makenna

#1 HIT THE NAIL owns a decent collection of BSF's, the best of which came when breaking from the innermost slot, but has scorched money over her last duet while the jock has left a LOT to be desired since moving his tack to New York. 4YO slides in 11 posts this afternoon, and we'll give her a slight edge because of the underrated Duggan who deserves more stock. #3 EXFILTRATION has the hood slapped on for today's 2nd off the shelf outing, and could wake up. #12 TALES OF MAKENNA rounds out the tri.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-9-3  NOTE: WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  3

1.Spun d'Etat

2.My Roxy Girl


#1 SPUN D'ETAT went coast to coast like butter and toast versus a weaker allotment a dozen days back, and while a bounce is always possible off a career best performance coming after a break in the action, we're digging that new barn is a tight four for five with freshly purchased mid level dirt stock who who got the job done off of this kind of break ( 9-23 days ) & are stepped up in class by 50% or more $6, $7, $11 & $9. Pre-claim pilot returns, which we always dig. #6 MY ROXY GIRL ( our favorite horse in training for quite some time ) turned in a whiz banging effort in the first start off the Vasquez claim, pushing the earnings for the greatest valued New York Bred female of all time to more than $625,000. Tacks on three pounds today while sliding out five slots, so we'll keep beneath. #3 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE is 1 fer 3 off a "true" break in the action, and has done nice work at Big Sandy.


Race  4 




These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #10 PIMENOVA showed absolutely zippo when transitioning over to the dirt for her secondary engagement, and is not only switched back to the gramma, but stretched out as well. Don't let the two fades dissuade your opinion here, as quite often, sprinters who come up short can get brave when able to relax a bit off of softer early splits. Jockey trainer combo are on a nice little 11:5-4-0-2 run of late with those in the 1-63 day bracket ( < 35-1 ), with mutuels of $9, $11, $4, $6 & $2. #9 INKBLOT may perk up a bit with the blinker addition today. #4 PREPOSTEROUS was green in her first spin & had some trouble in the followup; eligible to take a step forward with a professional sojourn.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:39, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-5-13(MTO).


Race  5

1.Atras Entry

2.Charlie Five O

3.Prince James 

Both the #1A GLORY ROAD -- barn 4 of 8 with second of the snag locally based mid level dirt animals off L/O's of 49 days or less, with payoffs of $6 x 2, $11 & $4 ( note the 1 for 7 stat with those IN the money last out ) -- and #1A STRIKING SPEED -- who found the line first in his sole second off the layoff jammie ( and at this tricky distance, too ) comprise decent factions of the Rob Atras entry. #6 CHARLIE FIVE O ( Would LOVE if this one was named after "Five O'Clock Charlie from M*A*S*H ) drops in class while transferring back over to what will likely be his preferred surface down the road, and got his Polaroid taken in his sole trip on this strip. #5 PRINCE JAMES owns a win and a placing in as many "legit" 3rd off the break heats, and belongs with these.  


Race  6 

1.Lord Flintshire


3.High Tide 

#1 LORD FLINTSHIRE hasn't been farther back than 2 1/2 lengths from the winner in five starts since switching outfits, and slides in eight slots off the recent & decent effort. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #10 TALLIS took to the turf like a Toro lawnmower in procuring the sheepskin 39 days in the rear, and the solid pedigree tells us that the result was likely not an aberration that day. Appears to be the mainger danger to the above. #3 HIGH TIDE is two for three at today's dx. of ground & should be able to pick up a check.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-1-3-9-(MTO)-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:43, #'S 9(MTO) & 15(MTO) WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Race  7

1.Big Bobby



Another race where we're seeing the ball clearly with our listed selections.  #1 BIG BOBBY has partaken in the exacta in his quartet of starts to date, posting near identical Beyer speed figures in all of them along the way. Gelding draws amongst the inner three posts for the first time, cuts back to a dist. where he scored the only time he tried it, and the show horse from the September 3rd affair was photogenic when next in action -- essentially replicating the prior numero. #10 UNO hasn't been in action since St. Valentine's Day, but win his only race outside of stakes company, and gets two thirds of the "Around the World" treatment ( gelded & juice ) for today's comebacker. #6 FENWAY was a "Monstah" when going all the way for "Lidocaine Bob" on the 3rd of the month when he "creamed" the competition right here, and unlike his conditioner over the last year, will have no excuses if able to set easy fractions early on. 


Race  8 

1.St. Joe Louis ( GB )

2.King Cause

3.Space Launch

Not the easiest race to decipher with just 1/3rd of the bunch eliminated with our first draft, but we'll give a tepid nod to the #1 ST. JOE LOUIS (GB). Brown trainee has been first or second in all three spins on firm ground ( with the tally being his only try off the pine ), & J/T combination have won with two of their last four ( non firsters ) starters at 15-1 or undah ( $22 & $2 ). #7 KING CAUSE nearly got the job done after returning off of more than a 13+ month hibernation, and could move up w/ that under his girthstrap. #8 SPACE LAUNCH has hit the board in 4 of 5 and sheds 32 oz. for today's third start off the bench.  OFF TURF: 7-2-1-9-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 14(MTO)-7-13(MTO).


Race  9 

1.Brew Pub 

2.Blitz to Win

3.My Brother Neil

#10 BREW PUB appears to have been a decent claim by this new trainer ( who's been a long time assistant in New York ), as he gave a good account of himself when taking the mandatory hike in class after being bought on the 1st of September ( while being last to load ), and is confidently moved up once again in a finale where he should be no worse than fourth. #7 BLITZ TO WIN has been a part of the superfecta in all outings but one ( which came before a hiatus ) and was a clear runner up in a strung out field when having blinks added a bit more than a month ago. Needs a cleaner trip than he received in the aforementioned heat. #3 MY BROTHER NEIL has lost the eye cups and his procreating abilities since last facing the starter and totes the lightest impost of his career.  


Belmont            ( Current ): 51-232  ( $432.90 )   Beatable Favorites    6-25( 24% )   Favorites  Win %:    73-232    ( 31.5% )( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-53        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-53     ( 49.1% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout