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Just a reminder that for complete selections & analysis of the Kentucky Derby & three other Grade One's, merely go back one page. 

Breakeven day for us here yesterday, as we've now won 9 of our last 18, and are 55:15-7-7 on the stand, with a cumulative flat bet profit over our last four meets ( $1,526 Bet/$1,535.80 Returned )


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/7

 

Race  1

1.Crypto Cash 

2.Lil Commissioner 

3.Two Thirty Five

#3 CRYPTO CASH is but a schnoz away from shooting for the grand salami this afternoon, and after taking a beating on a claim with this one a year ago, Rice plunked down another 32 large 51 weeks later. Slight edge. #4 LIL COMMISSIONER has hit the board in five of seven, and owns a poyfect two for two mark at today's distance of ground. Gelding totes the lightest impost of his career, and could be sitting on a goodie. #1 TWO THIRTY FIVE owns a snappy 12:5-3-0 "declining" mark at this trip, and is two of four when being first to load. 

 

Race  2

1.Scotty

2.It's Mandatory 

3.The Big Grey

#3 SCOTTY has done excellent work beneath Jackie Davis, who does the Finger Lakes/Belmont shuttle once again, and why not, as she's having herself quite a nice year to date. 7% DiPrima is a decent 2 for 8 with locally based mid level dirt stock that were in the money less than 46 days back ( $19 & $5 ), and we're seeing this one as being no worse than 3rd for all y'all who like to grind out a show profit. #5 IT'S MANDATORY flopped in the comebacker, but is back at the level claimed from two back, and chronic nibbler has cashed 6 minor checks from eleven attempts at today's distance of ground. #1 THE BIG GREY is one of two when entered for a tag on the sand, and one of those tallies was his only one when breaking from the pine. 

 

Race  3

1.Virginia Joy ( Ger )

2.Lovely Lucky

3.Mia Martina

Today's co-feature is the Sheepshead Bay Stakes, and did you know there used to be a racetrack there way back when ?  Here's the dope https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheepshead_Bay_Race_Track . #5 VIRGINIA JOY (GER) is one of two in second off the L/O deals, 3:2-0-1 @ today's dist., and got the job done in her lone start over a firm inner turf course ( which may not come to fruition today, given the forecast we just checked out ). #4 LOVELY LUCKY is one fer two in second off the bench forays and two for five going 1 3/8th's miles, and despite being a bit out of form since September, we'll give this lightly raced 6YO a chance to right the ship. #2 MIA MARTINA can land a share in a race where we positively guarantee one of these five will hit the board.  OFF TURF: 1-5-2-3-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  4 

1.Wonka

2.Caironi

3.Sweet Surprise

#3 WONKA ( by 'Twirling Candy', ya get it? ) was a very professional victress when procuring the sheepskin down at Hallandale Beach over a month ago, and five returnees have posted a cumulative 5:1-1-1 ledger in their next ( two different ) outings. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Mott is a saucy 8:5-1-2 with second off the L/O sod stayers who got the diploma 13-67 days back & are 8-1 or beneath today ( $4, $6, $5 & $10 x 2 ). #1 CAIRONI hasn't been in action since the fall, but was doing fine work back then, and outfit is a crisp 4:3-1-0 with those going long on the lawn off sabbaticals of more than 67 days ( 14-1 or less ), and just look at these payouts -- $24, $15 & $12. #4 SWEET SURPRISE has won two of her last three, and goes two turns for just the 2nd time. May spice things up a touch.  OFF TURF: 1-2(MTO)-6-9(MTO)-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:36, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-9-8.  NOTE: AS OF 12:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.  NOTE: DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-9-2.

 

Race  5

1.American Gentleman

2.River Dog

3.Patient Capital

You can feel free to upgrade the recent wet track figure of #4 AMERICAN GENTLEMAN to the tune of 15% higher, as historically, this one is better on a fast surface than one with moisture in it, and having said that, it appears his race to lose. #1 RIVER DOG appears the only one with a chance chance of upsetting the apple cart, based on his fondness for the strip, as well as the trip. #3 PATIENT CAPITAL got the job done right outta the box, despite Franco losing both irons and being helped back into the saddle by a fellow jock. Was one of the most amazing things we've seen on the track, and recommend you see the head on if possible. 371 Tomlinson tells us that the end result was likely not an aberration, and it's safe to say that the Beyer shown is likely substantially better. From a tiny sampling, barn is two for five with Belmont based stock who got the job done first time out ( 22-50 days on the main ).  NOTE: AS OF 10:30 P.M. FRIDAY, DUE TO THE TRACK DEFINITELY BEING WET TOMORROW, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-7-6.

 

Race  6 

1.Running Bee

2.News Carver

3.Union Buster

#3 RUNNING BEE showed a decent "Z" pattern when a well beaten but gamely runner up in his overture back in September, and returns getting Lasix & blinkers for the first time. 26% outfit is a solid three of five with male second time starters under these conditions at 11-1 or less, while in receipt of the "Big L" ( 480 days or less ), with mutuels of $2, $4 & $5. #2 NEWS CARVER is decently bred & gets in light. #10 UNION BUSTER more than outran his 21-1 offering when placing in a slightly weaker spot down south, and makes all kinds of sense here.  OFF TURF: 12-1-5-10-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:40, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-5-2.

 

Race  7

1.Demandrespect

2.Run Up the Score

3.Precursory

#4 DEMANDRESPECT is a fragile sort who's been beset by layoff lines after each of his two outings, but is showing a bullet gate move for today's first start with juice. Gal has faced some tough competitors to date, as 11 next out runners have amassed a cumulative 11:6-1-1 record, and that includes Kathleen O. -- tour Oaks favorite yesterday. Not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly. #6 RUN UP THE SCORE encountered a boatload of trouble beneath Cancel ( shocker ), but still managed to pick up 12% of the pot that day, and gets an appreciable switch in the saddle today. #5 PRECURSORY has a couple' nice morning moves & Kantharos gal could be any kind. 

 

Race  8 

1.City Man

2.Sacred Life ( Fr )

3.King Cause

#2 CITY MAN has a nice overall body of work, and C-Squared owns a 3 for 9 ledger with his graded sod stayers not receiving Lasix who won less than 56 days ago that are 9-1 or below ( $4 & $7 x 2 ). Slim margin. #5 SACRED LIFE (FR) has been disappointing in the last pair, but could perk up with the blinker addition. #4 KING CAUSE always gives it the old college try, and what's amazing that despite having a 6-3-6 record from 28 starts, has yet to have been favored.  OFF TURF: 1-4-6-8-7 

 

Race  9 

1.Sweet Solare

2.Angelinka ( Fr )

3.Charlee O

#7 SWEET SOLARE goes over the blades for the first time this afternoon, but is solidly bred for the stuff, and the hood is now removed while there is a return of Lasix. Note that the sire was exceptional on the poly ( 6:3-3-0 ) which we feel translates well for the green stuff. #1 ANGELINKA hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but finished 3rd in her sole start off the pine, and gets the wonder drug for today's N.A. bow. #6 CHARLEE O has been in the back half of the pack in her troika of heats since going coast to coast right outta the box, but gets Lasix & a bug for today's return, & could be dangerous if able to catch a flyer.  OFF TURF: 11-5-7(MTO)-2-8(MTO) NOTE: AS OF 11:44, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 1A-11-8.

 

Race  10

1.Zoomer

2.Sound Money

3.Greatest Honour

We'll blast off with the ollll', 3-2-1 tri in today's Westchester Stakes.  #3 ZOOMER is a popular item at the claim box these days, as this chestnut chap has changed barns the last seven times he's been entered for a tag, and that dates all the way back to last January. Fella ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is in excellent form these days, and you have to dig the 6:3-1-1 mark at today's distance of ground as well. #2 SOUND MONEY has been a completely different equine over his last three & should be able to handle the hike just fine. #1 GREATEST HONOUR has hit the board in all his starts but one, & gets blinks for today's third start off the respite. 

 

Race  11

1.Unlock

2.Lollygag

3.Darn That Song

#3 UNLOCK ( by 'Finders Key' -- ya get it ? ) had an hellacious beginning to his working life up in the Adirondacks last summer, and was immediately sent to the sidelines afterwards. The good news tho, is that Albertrani triples his normative 11% batting average with 2TS'ers in turf dashers at 43-1 or < ( $17, $13 & $7 ), and there's a sub category of two for three in the maiden claiming ranks. #6 LOLLYGAG ( "Lollygaggers!" ) makes her 3rd start off the bench today and is back in for a tag. #9 DARN THAT SONG broke through the gate pre start last time out, and while that's usually a death knell, it was at least goos to see this one flash some zip for most of the race. Chance to improve.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-11-9.

 

Belmont             ( Current ):15-56     ( $94.20 ) Beatable   Favorites    N/A  ( N/A )  Favorites   Win %:  17-56   ( 30.4% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 2-17      ( $13 )     Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  7-16     ( 43.8% )

  _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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