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Just a singular win for us on a mess of a day Sunday, as we look to get back on track today. 

We're currently 76:19-11-11 on the stand.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #4 Eventually


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/12

 

Race  1

1.Ever a Rebel

2.I Like Boston

3.Valenzan Day

#2 EVER A REBEL has a nicely hidden bullet breeze on the worktab for today's bow, and this one is a half to a multiple graded stakes winner who banked more than 283K. Runner went for 6 1/2 times the stud fee at auction, and from a DRF Formulator standpoint, Ward is a nifty 7:4-3-0 with locally based dirt firsters ( No Lasix ) starting things out at 9-2 or less ( $6, $10 & $3 x 2 ); sub category of 1-1 w/Irad. #5 I LIKE BOSTON & #4 VALENZAN DAY are both parts of the uncoupled Rudy Rod entry and are bred decently enough to make an impression. 

 

Race  2

1.Winning Drive

2.Direct Order

3.Joycee Has Pizzaz

#5 WINNING DRIVE drops a bit in class today, and is reunited with Carmouche today, under whom he's 5:2-1-0. Mild choice. #1 DIRECT ORDER is entered 20% below the price claimed from two back, and has done exceptional work ( 3 of 8 ) in Elmont. Six year old "horse" ( You hang on to those avocados, buddy ! ) is but a neck shy of being two for two when breaking from the pine and may be rolling late. #2 JOYCEE HAS PIZZAZ has a nice declining mark at BEL ( 8:3-2-0 ) and can land a share. 

 

Race  3

1.Manolito

2.Brilliant Brooks

3.Jake Rocks

#2 MANOLITO hasn't been seen since September, but both scores have come at today's distance of ground, and gelding has partaken in the super in both starts off the pine. From a trainer stat perspective, 11% barn is 6:3-1-1 when getting a horse & spotting them on the sand ( 51+ days ), with hefty payoffs of $36, $12 & $10. #3 BRILLIANT BROOKS lost by a noggin' the only time he was in a 3rd off the layoff spot & digs the trip. #5 JAKE ROCKS is a nibbler by nature and seems like a legit "unders" candidate. 

 

Race  4 

1.Mrs Bell

2.Mill Stone Creek

3.Exact Change

#1 MRS BELL was a gamely & well clear runner up in this race back in March, and rates a shot if able to get back to that effort in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 MILL STONE CREEK has ( for this allotment ) a decent body of work, and can improve off the troubled start last out. #2 EXACT CHANGE was a bit tardy to the party in the comebacker, but still managed to pick up 12% of the pot that day, and is back in with state breds.   NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Anonymously

2.Sweet Mission

3.Grudge

#1 ANONYMOUSLY is one of four off the pine, 3:1-1-0 at today's distance of ground, and 5:2-1-0 when loading first. Recognize the win the only time she was put in at this level. #11 SWEET MISSION has been kept in jail since the mid March snag, and is put back on the sod, over which she's 1 fer 4. #2 GRUDGE has oodles of speed & is two for three when going from brown to green. Watch out, suckahs.  OFF TURF: 10-9(MTO)-7-8-6(MTO)

 

Race  6 

1.Crosstown Girl

2.Eudaimonia

3.Draw Off

#2 CROSSTOWN GIRL hasn't been in action for three months, but has a couple of decent figaros, including a bangup placing at this level right outta the box. #5 UDAIMONIA owns the best BSF in the bunch, and the race most definitely goes through her; no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #1 DRAW OFF has shown some versatility in crashing the super in three starts under varying conditions, and drops a few pegs for today's third start off the sabbatical. Logical inclusion.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 EVENTUALLY

 

Race  7

1.Cucina

2.Maxwell Esquire

3.Artemus Citylimits

Pair of decent Formulator stats in play here, so let's get to 'em directly.  #4 CUCINA 3:1-0-1 off a L/O, and Maker is a solid 4-9 with those going short on the turf off breaks of 68 to 74 days ( beneath the 15-1 watermark ), with payouts of $5 x 2, $9 & $3. #5 MAXWELL ESQUIRE ( also 3:1-0-0 off the pine ) will be brought over by a bossman who's 2-6 when putting his Belmont sod sprinters off more than 68 days ( $8 & $5 ) and has fared well in this neck of the woods. #2 ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS has a 3:2-0-1 ledger in second off the layoff affairs & gets eye cups for the first time.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-5-9

 

Race  8 

1.Key Point

2.Kid d'Oro

3.Colormepazzi

#2 KEY POINT didn't have the best of trips when losing by a honker in his followup to last year's maiden breaker, and Brown owns a nifty 10 for 23 boxscore with Belmont based allowance equines who were 1-2-3 32 to 50 days in the past ( 4-1 or undah ). #4 KID D'ORO got his photo taken the only time he switched from the weeds to the sand, and trainer is 3 for 8 when doing such to his turf runners at this level who missed the $ less than 38 days back ( $5, $8 & $14 ). #5 COLORMEPAZZI went wire to wire when facing whet we would consider to be a tougher grouping, so why not include today?

 

Race  9 

1.Pave My Way

2.Sals Dream Girl

3.Royal Dancer

#3 PAVE MY WAY hasn't been seen since All Halllows Eve Eve, but hung up an adjusted 70.1 in her sole turf route, and we like the new outfit ( who's on fire these days ) is still eschewing the wonder drug. #2 SALS DREAM GIRL gets "The Big L" for the first time, and Gargan is ( from a small sampling ) 2-3 when doing just that to his turf routers off hibernations of 68 days or more ( $6 & $11 ). #4 ROYAL DANCER got snacked around a bit at the onset when beginning her working life two fortnights ago, and the conditioner promptly switches from a bug to a journeyman; expecting a better effort.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2-8

  

Belmont             ( Current ):19-76     ( $112.90 ) Beatable   Favorites    N/A  ( N/A )  Favorites   Win %:  25-76   ( 33.2% ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 3-21      ( $17 )       Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  8-21     ( 38.1% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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