Skunked yesterday on a chalk filled afternoon.

Let's get off the shneid, today, shall we !!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #2 Virtual Reality  Race 6 - #6 Dufresne

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/28


Race  1

1.The Wine Steward 



We open up the day with a field of first or second time starters, and will begin with the newbie #2 THE WINE STEWARD. Vino Rosso progeny went for more than 22 times the stud fee at Ocala just two months back, and has posted some decent morning moves in anticipation of today's lid lifter. 17% Maker more than triples that normative win rate ( 5:3-1-0-1 ) with firsters fitting ALL this exact criteria ( any jock ) at 7-1 or less ( $4 x 2 & $13 ), with a sub category of 2-2 when Irad hops on. The six members of the family tree went 6:3-2-0 in the bows, and obviously, the break will be key here. #3 KHADULLAH is cheaply bred, but has a couple'a nice works on the docket, and Rudy knows how to get some speed out of a runner. #1 GRAM is extremely well bred for this sorta deal ( 406 Tomlinson ) and is a first time foal out of a dam who went 12:2-3-0-3 on the brown stuff. 


Race  2

1.Frosty Invasion 

2.Snow Loves a Fight

3.Western Lane

#7 FROSTY INVASION blew up the tote board to the tune of $90 when procuring the sheepskin in going away fashion a few miles away, and did such after encountering a bit of trouble at the onset. Sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while, and as she's gone 18-50-62 on the green stuff, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. #4 SNOW LOVES A FIGHT is aggressively hiked up in class despite the recent disappointment, and gets a jockey upgrade for today's first "true" 3rd off the layoff deal. #8 WESTERN LANE has been freshened up a tad for today's first start with a "For Sale" stickah attached to her rump, and as her best sod start yet came at 53-1 ( with a boatload of trouble ), we'll slide in.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-5-6


Race  3


2.Storm Shooter

3.Star Attitude 

#4 BRUNATE is a nibbler by rote ( 27:2-7-6 ), but is precipitously better at today's distance of ground, and as this one is approximately 13.2% better on a fast track than one with moisture in it, you can feel to upgrade the last pair accordingly. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Bond has a View to a Kill with mid level dirt dashers off L/O's of 52-63 days ( 7-1 or beneath ), with honest returns of $13, $11, $8, $5 & $6. #5 STORM SHOOTER ( who should be no worse than 2nd, for those who punt to place ) showed improved early zip last time out, and goes from a bug to a vet while owning a nice record at the dx.; logical. #7 STAR ATTITUDE comes in off a win vs. similar type last Saturday, and just may sit a nice trip. 


Race  4

1.Ms. Solveig

2.Butter Cake

3.Risk Free

#4 MS. SOLVEIG was somewhat disappointing when having blinkers added for the 2nd off the L/O attempt, but is eligible to improve if able to catch a glib surface this afternoon, while picking up Irad. Mild selection. #6 BUTTER CAKE is a fantastically bred firster who draws ideally, and hasn't missed a work since January 21st, while also being in possession of a bullet gate breeze -- something which ALWAYS merits inclusion. Good to see Mott give a shot to a low percentage pilot. #5 RISK FREE has yet to miss a superfecta in 11 dirt deals, and who are we to rock that boat ?  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 VIRTUAL REALITY doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept 8/5 ? 


Race  5


2.King Moonracer

3.Sugar Gray Leonard

#1A DRAKON has done nothing but good things since being transferred over to the gramma ( 7:2-3-1-1 ), and ships in today from Sam Houston toting along back to back career best figaros for a barn that has a nice stat behind them. Over the last 1,826 days, this clan is a tight 4:3-0-1 s/ sod sprinters who crashed the fiesta 47-67 days back @ 11-1 or less, and said winners came back $12 x 2 & $7. #8 KING MOONRACER ( who owns a 4:1-2-0-1 ledger on the Widener ) lost by only a length and a half the only time he was in a second off the L/O scenario ( despite being taken eight wide ). I. Ortiz hops back on. #6 SUGAR GRAY LEONARD is yet ANOTHER runner being taken from a barn and handed to Richard Dutrow -- who recently returned from a TEN year license revocation -- and as he's done well in one of the two turf attempts, we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 1-5-2B(MTO)-3-6


Race  6

1.Angela's Party Girl

2.Brisky Frolic

3.More Mango

We have three decent sets of Formulator statistics in play here, so lets get to 'em directly.  #2 ANGELA'S PARTY GIRL ( a lively runner up the only time she was in a second off the layoff placement ) will be led over by a fella who's 5:3-0-2 with those going short on the sod at this level at 12-1 or less ( < 29 days ), with mutuels of $6 x 2 & $4. #4 BRISKY FROLIC: Maker owns a 5:3-1-0 mark with Belmont based mid level turf sprinters who were 1-2-3 less than 47 days in the rear ( $6, $8 & $9 ). #7 MORE MANGO: 7% Ferraro is 1-7 with grass sprinters at this class level who missed the baccala less than 32 days in the past ( 50-1 or beneath ), with that winner returning $52.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 DUFRESNE


Race  7



3.Tonal Impact

#2 CURBSTONE has won three of four, and although they have all been at today's distance of ground, they were in fact going two turns, and this fella now makes one left for the very first time. The good news, is that this shedrow is 4 fer 6 with BEL dirt runners off absences of 51-58 days ( $8, $16, $12 & $6 ). #4 GALT comes today off a decent placing at this level last out, and should be in the thick of things once again. #1 TONAL IMPACT ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is on a sweet 10:5-2-3 run, and owns a nice record at the trip. 


Race  8

1.Catch that Party 

2.Frank's Art

3.Battle Scars

#4 CATCH THAT PARTY hasn't been in action since the fall, but has partaken in the superfecta in his troika of turf engagements off the pine, and is two of two beneath today's helmsman. Lightly races 6YO could be coming late with any sort of pace to cut into. #7 FRANK'S ART returned off an elongated absence to finish in the back half of the pack versus this sort at Aqueduct a month back, but scored in her only dance on this course, and we'll give him a chance to reverse course. #8 BATTLE SCARS sheds 32 ounces off the recent tally, ( his first outing in this zip code ), and appears to be in some good form these days.  OFF TURF: 1-4-7-5-6


Race  9

1.Follow the Fed ( AE )

2.Bernt Again

3.Orange Freeze 

#11 FOLLOW THE FED (AE) outran her 17-1 offering when closing out the super a half'a month back, and it's encouraging to see Flavah Flav return. Price play if able to draw in for today's initial stretchout. #6 BERNT AGAIN gets a bit time jock upgrade for today;s second start off the pine, and we like that she's done nothing but improve w/ each passing turf try. #10 ORANGE FREEZE takes teh biggest drop in the biz and switches back to Joel.  OFF TURF: 8-7-4-3-1A(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 11:29, DUE TO A SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Belmont:              22-132 ( $126.90 ) Beatable  Favorites:  3-11 ( 27.3% ) Favorites Win %: 49-133 ( 36.8% )( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes:   7-28     ( $58.30 )   Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                  Favorites Win %:  8-28    ( 28.6% )


Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:  58-154 ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ):97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% )  Favorites Win %:  139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3690-18492  ($31,342.90) Beatable Favorites : 435-1602( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6970-18595( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3774-19120 ( $32,155.50 )Beatable Favorites : 450-1668( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 6980-18809( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout