Happy Halloween, everyone !!
Congratulations to my main man, Jimmy Ferraro, on winning the $250,000 Empire Classic on Sunday -- and to the tune of $83 !!!
Jimmmmmmmyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!!!!!!!
As for us, we closed out the week in fine fashion with a profitable grand slam ( $10, $8, $3 & $2 ), as we head into closing week with some mo'.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Solo in Paris | 2nd -Boom Boom Thunder | 3rd -Unswayed |
#3 SOLO IN PARIS has finished in the back half of the pack in his last 11 races, but the adjusted speed figure for the most recent is solid enough for this very weak assemblage. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Randi is on a 6 for 8 run with Aqueduct based male mid level dirt dashers at 6-1 or less, off breaks of 17 to 41 days. The winners for that study paid $13, $12, $5, $9, and $8 X 2, and there is a subcategory of two for two with those who missed the money last time out. #4 BOOM BOOM THUNDER outran his odds quite nicely when completing the triple at 33 to 1 off the freshening, and makes all kinds of sense off of that. #1 UNSWAYED has been a part of the superfecta and three or four starts to date, and finds himself at his lowest level yet. Obvious factor.
| Race 2 | 1st -Janssen | 2nd -Berning Beauty | 3rd -Neptune Beach |
#7 JANSSEN fell short by less than the length when closing out the exacta in this race on 9/22, matching a lifetime best number in the process. Colt has been a part of the super in his last six dirt outings, and totes along a rare bullet breeze for today's deal. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #4 BERNING BEAUTY overcame a troubled onset to close out the superfecta in the same race as the above, and could move forward with a tidier beginning in today's 3rd start off the pine. #1 NEPTUNE BEACH as good as any for the showdown.
| Race 3 | 1st -Iridescent | 2nd -Hagrid's Flame | 3rd -Sandy Sweet Tooth |
#2 IRIDESCENT has been kept in jail since being claimed for half a C-note back in mid September, & returns back @ nearly identical conditions this afternoon. Javy is off to a nice start after returning from an injury, and barn is on fire this meet as well. Things to like here. #3 HAGRID'S FLAME has been in absentia since the end of July, but was a visually impressive winner in his only start off a sabbatical, and is now up for grabs for the first time. #4 SANDY SWEET TOOTH has eye cups added for today's second start off the l/o, and is another who has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt this afternoon. Hat trick well within reach.
| Race 4 | 1st -The Taco Lady | 2nd -Citational | 3rd -Shoplifting |
#1 THE TACO LADY has been on the sidelines for the last two and a half months, but barn knows to how to have them ready for a comebacker, and while she poses a big threat if able to get back to that last effort, it would behoove you to take a long looksee during the warmups. #8 CITATIONAL came along honestly enough to close out the tri when debuting on the 27th of September, and as this quarter of a million dollar bred critter went for more than five times that amount at auction, you'd have to think she's well meant. #6 SHOPLIFTING has immolated some baccala over the course of her career, but was a third place finisher in her only turf to dirt deal, and while we feel she can land a share, we're going to keep beneath once again.
| Race 5 | 1st -Mrs. Manicotti | 2nd -Teller to Win | 3rd -Gaga's Hamsome |
#5 MRS. MANICOTTI ( obviously named by a 'Honeymooners' fan ) showed precipitous improvement when nearly going all the way at 12-1 second time out, and gets an upgrade in the training department off of that effort. There don't appear to be many world beaters signed on, so a wire job is once again a possibility. #7 TELLER TO WIN was as flat as a pancake after the solid bow, but goes from an apprentice to a journeyman now, and deserves a chance to make amends. #6 GAGA'S HAMSOME has blinks added after a 21-1 showing in the slop, and as she improved from her first start to the next, who knows where the ceiling is in that regards.
| Race 6 | 1st -Cool Operator | 2nd -Because the Night | 3rd -J J's Joker |
#7 COOL OPERATOR drops in claiming price for the third straight time when being made available for purchase, and that looks like a smart move given the lackluster effort last time out. Colt went all the way the only time he was in a "true" third off the bench engagement, and barn is three for four with male sand sprinters of that sort, at this locale and level, off breaks of 22 days or less. Jock from this one's last tally sticks around. #2 BECAUSE THE NIGHT finished second in this race when returning off of bit of a hibernation, but as there was a voided claim before he was sent to the sidelines, you should take a look during the warmups to see how things stand. #3 J J'S JOKER has never been entered this cheaply, and can grind out a share.
| Race 7 | 1st -Brees | 2nd -Tide of the Sea | 3rd - L'Antharis ( Fr ) |
#9 BREES was sacked for an eighth place defeat when last facing the starter a bit more than two months ago, but we are assuaged by the fact that he owns a win, a placing, and a length loss in his only three starts after a respite. Pre layoff pilot returns, which is something we always see as a positive, and this one can send, or rate just a bit. #10 TIDE OF THE SEA is another coming in off a ghastly effort, but the penultimate try was a solid one at 12-1, and is now entered at a level less than that placing. #1 L'ANTHARIS (FR) gave a pretty decent account of himself when having his first try in the States back in the summer, and while he hasn't been seen since that day, has been making some pretty steady appearances on the work tab since. Relegating to the unders because of the Nordic barn. OFF TURF: 4-14(AE)-5-2-12
| Race 8 | 1st -Tap It Easy | 2nd -Miss Im Pulsive | 3rd -Rock Star Rebel |
Aqueduct Fall: 48-249 ( $323 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 84-249 ( 33.7% ) ( As of Thursday morning )
Saratoga Summer ( Final ): 85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4316-21042 ($35,798.90) +/-: -14.9% against a 16% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 477-1789( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8081-21779( 37.1% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4346-21657 ( $36,749.40 ) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.6% takeout
