Spooky day for us here yesterday, but we look to right the ship with three days left in the meet !
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Dillinger | 2nd -Magnificent Mile | 3rd -Trumptastic |
#7 DILLINGER is public enemy number one after going down as the favorite in his last pair, but sharpshooter is 3:1-1-1 when last to load, & appears to have a speed figure advantage over the rest of the grouping. Know him early but have the Pepto handy late. #4 MAGNIFICENT MILE was a lively winner versus a weaker grouping 19 days in the rear, and his best work is at today's distance of ground. Repeat well within reach. #6 TRUMPTASTIC got the sheepskin when returning off a lengthy absence, and while a bounces always possible off that, we like that they are confidently shipping this one to the Big Apple this afternoon. A reduction in weight is always appreciated after a score, as well. NOTE: AS OF 10:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Hatch | 2nd -Nolo Contesto | 3rd -High Heat |
#2 HATCH has been a popular item at the claim box of late, as this gray gelding has had to leave a forwarding address after his last four starts. There's good reason for that, as he usually gives a good account of himself, and that includes a win with a career best wet track speed fig for the most recent. If you were to probate that to his best number on a good surface, then that would make the case even stronger for this one. #3 NOLO CONTESTO drops a bit in class after a third place finish 20 days back, and as this ridgling is a nibbler by rote, we are going to keep beneath. #5 HIGH HEAT is a six year old "horse" ( You hang on to those high pistachios buddy!" ) who has hit the board in his last troika, and we'll chunk in. NOTE: AS OF 10:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Darn That Song | 2nd -Amy's Light | 3rd -Carol T |
#4 DARN THAT SONG has tons of early zip, and consistent gal has partaken in the superfecta in 10 straight, and 15 of 16 of late. We've had good luck with these connections in the past, and will give this one a slim edge. #2 AMY'S LIGHT was unfairly ( to the bettor ) declared a non-starter in the most recent, as the start definitely didn't cost her the win that day, and in fact got a placing. That was definitely a scenario where place punters needed to be protected. Aside from that, it was a solid effort at what were extremely healthy odds, and gal now goes from a triple bug to a journeyman. #3 CAROL T runs out the tri.
| Race 4 | 1st -Pallotta Sisters | 2nd -Settling Storm | 3rd -Next On Stage |
#4 PALLOTTA SISTERS got smacked around at the onset during closing week end up at Saratoga, but that race was against substantially tougher, and if you could you could see yourself clear to the quartet of deals before that, then what you have is a girl who was doing some pretty good work. Demand a bit of value though. #3 SETTLING STORM has been a part of the triple in her last quartet, and can come from the back of the pack, just off the pace, or be on the lead. Looking good once again. #8 NEXT ON STAGE burned a bit of bread two fortnight's back, but had been a part of the super in every outing prior to that, and obviously deserves a chance to make amends. OFF TURF: 4-5-2-12(MTO)-6
| Race 5 | 1st -Vehmente | 2nd -Vespera | 3rd -Bossy Pants |
#5 VEHEMENTE hasn't been seen in more than two months, but was last spotted in a heat which yielded two next out winners from five runners to race, out of four different races. The turf pedigree is still unproven, but quite often a dirt sprinters' speed can carry a horse a long way before they realize they're on the stuff. With blinkers now added, this one could be on the choo choo beneath the double bug. Cross answered yesterday, so check the changes. #1A VESPERA had no excuse for the flopola back on 10/13, but is bred to do better, and could offer a touch of value. #3 BOSSY PANTS overcame a bit of trouble to put forth a solid showing when going over the verde for the first time 43 days in the past, and the bloodlines tell us the result that they was likely not a fluke. Keeping in the unders, as Mott has been frigid quite a while. NOTE: AS OF 8:01 P.M. THURSDAY, THE #9 -- NOT THE #1A -- WILL BE OUR SECOND SELECTION. NOTE: AS OF 10:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-2-6.
| Race 6 | 1st -Poppy's Pride | 2nd -Mr J T | 3rd -Cees Get Degrees |
#1 POPPY'S PRIDE drops in class after a humdrum effort on the 19th of October, and aside from having decent marks at the trip and over the strip, is supported by a solid Formulator statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, Noda is 5:4-1-0 with locally based male dirt stock ridden by this pilot, off sabbaticals of five weeks or less. The winners for that study came back $20, $7, and $4 x 2, and there was a subcategory of two for two with those who finished off the board last out. #2 MR J T was an honest 2nd place finisher in this race two starts back, & draws snugly today. #4 CEES GET DEGREES is a nifty four of nine beneath the seagulls, and sheds a whopping 7 lb.'s of a troubled outing versus tougher. NOTE: AS OF 10:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Bring Me a Check | 2nd -Ramblin' Wreck | 3rd -Dancing Rinca |
#7 BRING ME A CHECK has done exactly that in her last triad, as this game sort has now been a part of the triple in 2/3rd's of his lifetime calls to the post. Meeeeeek selection in a heat that's difficult to hug. #8 RAMBLIN' WRECK finished just a touch behind the above in their recent encounter, but had a boatload of trouble that day, and could fare even better with a tidier beginning. #4 DANCING RINCA seems like the quintessentially perfect unders candidate, as he's been a part of the superfecta in his last sextet, and has done the same in both times when going one turn to two.
| Race 8 | 1st -Colonel Bob | 2nd -Epitaph | 3rd -Shoot the Nickel |
#7 COLONEL BOB got waffled when tossed into the deep end of the Champagne back on 10/5, and although the pedigree for the green stuff is not yet known, just the class drop alone gives this one a solid shot in a wide open deal. #5 EPITAPH by no means disgraced himself when facing winners for the first time, as he showed good early dash versus Grade 3 competition before completing the triple at 20-1. Major player once again. #6 SHOOT THE NICKEL returned off a freshening to pick up the diploma in game fashion at the end of September, and while a regression is always possible in the second start after a layoff, we'll ride the big fig at what just may still be a decent parimutual offering. OFF TURF: 2-3-1-7-4
| Race 9 | 1st -El Alacran | 2nd -Guile | 3rd -Prairie Dunes |
#4 EL ALACRAN has lost ground in the land in every start to date, but goes over the brown stuff for just the second time today, and cuts back from two turns to one, which resulted in a nice BSF the only time he attempted such. #5 GUILE has done some decent work on the main over his last three tries over such, and slides in six slots off the recent showing directly behind a next out winner. #11 PRAIRIE DUNES may plod along for a piece.
Aqueduct Fall: 48-257 ( $323 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 86-257 ( 33.5% ) ( As of Friday morning )
Saratoga Summer ( Final ): 85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4316-21042 ($35,798.90) +/-: -14.9% against a 16% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 477-1789( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8081-21779( 37.1% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4346-21657 ( $36,749.40 ) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.6% takeout
