Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
Race 1 | 1st -Maximus Monster | 2nd -Big Ego | 3rd -Concord Spirit |
#2 MAXIMUS MONSTER gets his working papers this afternoon, and does such with a few bullet breezes on the docket. There have been several gaps on the work tab, so right off the bat, you should take a gander during the warm ups, but he seems nicely spotted for the lidlifter. Barn has won with both of their "Dirsters" who are getting Lasix at 22-1 or less, and hungry pilot ensures solid effort. #5 BIG EGO has been kept in jail since being snagged for 30 large nearly three fortnights back, and is brought back at that same level today, while having the hood affixed for the first time. Solid chance once again. #4 CONCORD SPIRIT loses the eye cups while going two turns to one and green to brown. Should be left in the mix, as he's yet to miss the super in any try on the sand. NOTE: AS OF 10:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Race 2 | 1st -It's Hammertime | 2nd -Studlydoright | 3rd -Tony Eclipse |
#4 IT'S HAMMERTIME has been visually impressive in winning all three of his starts to date, and this fellow cuts back from two turns to one off the smart score down in Wilmington. Could be sitting on another score in today's third start off the pine. #3 STUDLYDORIGHT has only posted one poor effort in his quintet of starts to date, and that was in the Grade One Hopeful up in Saratoga. Blinks are now added to the package in hopes of aiding this one to a tidier beginning. Another one who is in a third of the bench engagement. #2 TONY ECLIPSE was a dead game runnerup finisher behind our top selection in the last affair, while being miles clear of the third place finishing that day. Not sure what what helps this one turn the tables this afternoon, but must be left in the mix nonetheless.
Race 3 | 1st -Executive Move | 2nd -Iron Man Ira | 3rd -Accidental Bid |
#1 EXECUTIVE MOVE has done quite well since returning off a lengthy absence, as he's yet to miss the board this year and now slides in to the rail while having blinks added for the first time. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #3 IRON MAN IRA has been freshened up since being eased in late July, and is an obvious threat if able to revert to the three starts prior to that. #6 ACCIDENTAL BID has never been out of the super, there's another one now getting hood slapped on. NOTE: AS OF 10:34, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Race 4 | 1st -Running Bee | 2nd -St Anthony | 3rd -Fort Washington |
#5 RUNNING BEE down the lane. #3 ST ANTHONY has six times as many wins as he does seconds and thirds, and we like an animal who knows where the finish line is. And in to that, is the fact that he picked up the lion's share the only time he was in a third of the bench jammie. Should be in the thick of things late. #2 FORT WASHINGTON owns a win and a fourth place finish from as many tries on this course, and showed a little bit of new dimension last time out while being forwardly placed. OFF TURF: 4-2-7(MTO)-5-6
Race 5 | 1st -Valenzan Day | 2nd -Ski Country | 3rd - I am the Law |
#5 VALENZAN DAY shoots for the interrupted grand slam today, and does such while having posted three successive career best speed figures. Jockey/Trainer combination fare better together than apart, and obviously, we love this ones declining Mark of 18:8-3-1. Take a looksee during the warmups, however. From a DRF Formulator point of view, barn is three of six with locally based dirt runners who were claimed 51-147 days ago, and are coming in off of a win. #9 SKI COUNTRY disappointed last out and is now at an all time low. #3 I AM THE LAW has never seen these depths, but the pre layoff pilot returns, and could perk up with the readdition of blinkers.
Race 6 | 1st -Gimme Gimme | 2nd -Revivalism | 3rd -Monte Avi |
#8 GIMME GIMME showed a bit of improvement from his first start to the followup, and did such when breaking from an outsidish slot. We're not quite sure why Rivera ended up on a substantially weaker horse in this field, but this fella should be in the thick of things once again. #9 REVIVALISM has received the unkindest cut of all after being vanned off after one start, while being as green as grass in another. The drop in class is fine by us, and although this jockey is chilly at the meet, he does quite well for this barn. #3 MONTE AVI was an honest enough third place finisher in a near identical spot four weeks ago, but as the number came back pretty light, we're going to keep beneath. NOTE: AS OF 10:38, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Race 7 | 1st -Man of Mischief | 2nd -National Identity | 3rd -Skytown |
These three and no more for all your rolling action. #5 MAN OF MISCHIEF has done quite well in both fast track starts to date, and did such versus slightly tougher. May be overlooked a bit parimutually because of the last two poor performances. #1 NATIONAL IDENTITY outran his odds a bit when showing at six to one in the 10/6 bow, and as the $7,500 bred animal went for a 20x that amount up in Togatown last year, we are thinking there is ample room for improvement. #4 SKYTOWN replicated the runnerup finish from first time out, when accomplishing the same next out, and did such behind a return winner who improved 5.7% in the speed fig area. NOTE: AS OF 10:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Race 8 | 1st -Annascaul | 2nd -Me Governor | 3rd -Laurice |
#7 ANNASCAUL merely split the field when facing winners for the first time Nordes de Lignes, but that was a deep field, and she did in fact improve her number by a couple of points. We wouldn't be surprised to see her on the front end once again this afternoon. #2 ME GOVERNOR showed marked improvement when going over the blades for the second time, besting optional photos down in Hallandale beach, and slides in five slots off of that effort. #4 LAURICE has blinkers slapped on for the first time after playing the fade in a G3 deal here 27 days in the rear, and we see no reason to exclude. OFF TURF: 5-1-9-2-4 NOTE: AS OF 10:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Race 9 | 1st -Brigade Commander | 2nd -Korrongo | 3rd -Irish Tenor |
#4 BRIGADE COMMANDER was an even fourth place finisher on the main about a month and a half back, but is now transitioned back to the green stuff, which worked for him in the past as he's hit the board and two of three starts when doing such, and one of them was a defeat by only a nose. Stock goes up in the front wraps come off. #5 KORRONGO goes long for the first time this afternoon, but the bloodlines are okay for such, and there are a couple of decent grass efforts on the resume'. #3 IRISH TENOR got smacked around at the onset in his most recent, and despite being kept in prison after the claim that day, is protected against such today, while going 2X for the first time. OFF TURF: 1-9-11-8-4
Race 10 | 1st -Stunner | 2nd -The Queens M G | 3rd -Wild Mama |
#1 STUNNER went coast to coast like butter and toast second time out, & is a threat to do it once again if able to replicate the quick early fractions from that day. Even should she break a little bit tardily, the extra furlong and a half -- as well as today's snug placement -- would be of some assistance in sorting out any issues. #8 THE QUEENS M G apparently didn't like the wet stuff when flopping in the slop at the end of August, but deserves a chance to make amends, especially with that bullet workout on display. #6 WILD MAMA ( "Oh, Mama... " ) essentially went all the right outta the box back in mid September, and the top flight family tree tells us the result that afternoon was likely not a fluke. She was a bit green however, so we're going to keep beneath.
Race 11 | 1st -Bryant and Cooper | 2nd -Willful Mama | 3rd -Moonlight Gal |
#2 BRYANT AND COOPER was a bit slow to get into gear in the September 13th curtain raiser, but newbies from this clan have a tendency to figure things out as they go along, and she slides in seven post positions off that deal. Mild choice. #8 WILLFUL MAMA improved by leaps and bounds when stretching out and switching surfaces on the same day as the above's race, but as she may have outran her bloodlines that day, we are going to keep in the unders for now. #1 MOONLIGHT GAL got a little bit better second time out, and with Candy Ride in the family tree, we have no problems with including this first time turfer. OFF TURF: 3-5-13(AE)-15(MTO)
Aqueduct Fall: 49-266 ( $330.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 88-266 ( 33.1% ) ( As of Saturday morning )
Saratoga Summer ( Final ): 85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4316-21042 ($35,798.90) +/-: -14.9% against a 16% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 477-1789( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8081-21779( 37.1% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4346-21657 ( $36,749.40 ) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.6% takeout