Just about a breakeven grand slam for us here yesterday, but more importantly, congrats to my wonderful friend Jackie, who turned her first ever $20 BCBC qualifier into a $10,000 entry, and more than TRIPLED her $7,500 bankroll, in taking home $23,400 !!
Good things happen to good people.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Fun to Tap | 2nd -Cyclone State | 3rd -Cooper |
#1 FUN TO TAP didn't show a whole heck of a lot when beginning his working life on the 21st of September, but went for more than six times the $185,000 stud fee up in Saratoga last year, and when you factor that in with the 381 Tomlinson figure, you'd have to think this one is well meant. Blinkers are now a part of the makeup, and we expect this fellow to be closer to the front end. #7 CYCLONE STATE is in fact a rare Iowa bred plying his trade in the Big Apple, and after nearly going all the way last time out, is a threat to do such again in going over a fast track for the second time. Recognize the bullet breeze on display. #2 COOPER hasn't done much to get the heart thumping thus far, but is another one having the hood affixed, and cuts back to one turn.
| Race 2 | 1st -Amanda's Folly | 2nd -Movie Moxy | 3rd -Evidencias ( Brz ) |
#3 AMANDA'S FOLLY is a pretty consistent gal who outran her odds quite nicely when showing at 14 to 1 in her only third start off the bench deal. Irad guided of this one to an honest placing in their lone pairing last year, and this one should be into thick of things late in the game. #2 MOVIE MOXY hasn't been seen in three months, but fires well fresh, and the pre-layoff pilot comes back, which is something we always like. #4 EVIDENCIAS (BRZ) has been smartly spotted by C-squared over her last quintet, as this lady has hit the board in each of those heats, and at different locales. Note that five returnees from the recent tally came back to amass two wins, a showing, and a fourth place finish, with an average speed figure improvement of 7.4 points per.
| Race 3 | 1st -Big Dosser | 2nd -Calling Card | 3rd -Leon Blue |
#6 BIG DOSSER gets his working papers this afternoon, and after a humdrum work tab, had the screws tightened up a bit with a top 25% breeze at Belmont last Friday. The Tomlinson figs for both the surface and distance positively pop off the page, and of the two upstairs members of the family tree who went long on the lawn, one scored in his first attempt, with the other one getting the job done in the second try. Should get some good value here. #9 CALLING CARD showed a bit of improvement when stretching out a half a month back, and could be coming late again with any pace to cut into. #4 LEON BLUE has completed the exacta in both starts to date, and could fare even better with a cleaner onset. OFF TURF: 4-5-2-9-1
| Race 4 | 1st -Mo Damorninggrouch | 2nd -Sugar Bee | 3rd -Quick Power Nap |
#10 MO DAMORNINGGROUCH popped and stopped when facing winners for the first time on 9/26, but that's never an easy spot, and simply put, and has a chance to get back on track at what will likely be a solid offering. Watch out. #9 SUGAR BEE was quite quite professional in procuring the sheepskin at first asking, and is smartly shipped up the turnpike to get some of this big New York bred money. You won't get 45-1 again, but don't dismiss. #4 QUICK POWER NAP has blinks added and could be a bit closer to the pace today. OFF TURF: 10-5-7-8-1
| Race 5 | 1st -Run Don't Walk | 2nd -Open Flame | 3rd -Higher Force |
#7 RUN DON'T WALK flashed a bit of early hoof before dropping back to last in the debut on September 28th, but has blinkers put on for the first time, and the 409 Tommy says this one is eligible to fare much better -- and catching a glib surface for the first time. #2 OPEN FLAME has yet to hit the board in three stars to date, but this is a week grouping, and gray gal can snap out of it with the blinker edition. #4 HIGHER FORCE showed directly behind a next out victress in the September overture, and must be left in the mix
| Race 6 | 1st -Khali Magic | 2nd -Dazzling Move | 3rd -Braganza |
#8 KHALI MAGIC just may prove to be another good claim by Jimmy Ferraro, as after being plucked for 45 large back in June, she returned to show against open competition at a solid 9-1 offering. Historically, this mare owns two wins and a third place finish from as many second off the bench engagements, and barn blew up the tote board to win the Empire Classic right here on Sunday. #7 DAZZLING MOVE is a little bit better on a wet track than a fast one, but that last win down in Maryland was sharp enough, & must be left in play. #2 BRAGANZA has a win and a runnerup finish in both of her second off the bench jamborees, and we like when the trainer isn't scared to make an equipment change after a decent performance. Note today's blinker addition.
| Race 7 | 1st -Master Freud | 2nd -Nano Man | 3rd - Li'l Lang |
#3 MASTER FREUD -- just like our selection earlier on the day -- got waffled when leaving the land of the winless for the first time, but quite often this sort can be overlooked parimutually, and we're going to swing away in today's third start off the bench beneath a jock who knows how to get the long shots home at times. #9 NANO MAN leaves the hood on the backside today, and cuts back from two turns to one for the first time. Toss in the fact that he's back in with Empire breds, and you have a sensible inclusion. #12 LI'L LANG draws the outside for the first time, and has hit the board in all three starts underneath Flavor Flav.
| Race 8 | 1st -Hamilton's Way | 2nd -Commuted | 3rd -Regalo |
#2 HAMILTON'S WAY was a well beaten but decently clear runner up in an off the turf heat last out, and although his fast track engagements haven't done much to get the blood pumping, he seems to be figuring things out as he goes along, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a decent effort at a solid price. Mild choice. #4 COMMUTED went to coast to coast like butter and toast town in Louisville last out, and can't fault those taking a favorable view off the career best numero. #1 REGALO was a solid third place finisher in the Super Derby a month and a half back, and as the only time he missed the superfecta was in a start preceding a lengthy absence, we'll incorporate in today's third start off the pine. NOTE: AS OF 10:45, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 9 | 1st -Twohonestmischief | 2nd -I'm Due | 3rd -George Briggs |
#9 TWOHONESTMISCHIEF showed a tad of improvement when switching from the brown to the green for the first time, and now has eye cups affixed for today's second time going long, which can often result in a move forward. The Ferraro barn is on a tidy 9:302 run with those off of breaks of less than a month, and < 50-1. The winners came back $83, $17, and $24. Bombs away in the last race of the meet !! #1 I'M DUE overcame some trouble to finish third down at the Shore in the curtain raising tw months ago, and as he accomplished that when breaking from the inside, we're going to keep in the mix once again. #12 GEORGE BRIGGS closes out our race, day, week, and meet right here. We'll see you on Thursday for the start of the Aqueduct fall stand ! OFF TURF: 10-9-1-11-14(MTO)
Aqueduct Fall: ( Final ) 53-286 ( $350 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 95-286 ( 33.3% )
Saratoga Summer ( Final ): 85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4316-21042 ($35,798.90) +/-: -14.9% against a 16% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 477-1789( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8081-21779( 37.1% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4346-21657 ( $36,749.40 ) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.6% takeout
