Happy King Kong, Godzilla, and Mighty Joe Young Day !! ( If you know, ya' know ! )
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #1A Griffin's Wharf ( but only if his entrymate declares )
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Math Tutor | 2nd -Munden | 3rd -Apple Jax |
#4 MATH TUTOR has improved with each passing sand start, culminating with a lively runnerup finish in this race 20 days in the rear. Slight edge and an opener with but one first draft elimination. #3 MUNDEN is a well bred runner who could be any kind, but we are going to keep beneath as Javy has been chilly since returning from an injury. #5 APPLE JAX ( uncoupled barnmate with our secondary selection ) is another one with solid bloodlines, and tipped his hand a bit with those two gate moves in late October and early November. Beatable Favorite: #1A GRIFFIN'S WHARF will fill the bill, but only if it's entry mate declares.
| Race 2 | 1st -Lady Laoban | 2nd -Baroness Bourbon | 3rd -Duchess of Destin |
#2 LADY LAOBAN didn't show a whole heck of a lot the only time she went on the sand, but Jose Ortiz displayed very little effort that afternoon, and as we feel this one's pedigree is better for the brown than the green, we can definitely see a solid effort today on the dropdown. #8 BARONESS BOURBON is another who has never seen these depths, and has eye cups affixed for the first time. Recognize the win and two showings from just as many tries when going from Turf to Dirt. #1 DUCHESS OF DESTIN tried to run sans pilot last time out, but that's not entirely legal, and as she picked up the lions share in the dirt deal a few starts prior to that, we'll give her a chance to make amends
| Race 3 | 1st -Whiskey Frens | 2nd -Monomoy Beach | 3rd -One Vision |
#7 WHISKEY FRENS bested only one horse and the chase ambulance when beginning his working life a month ago, and takes the biggest drop in the game for an outfit that's been miraculous at the stand. Should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there. #3 MONOMOY BEACH is a cheaply bred fella, but owns a decently hidden morning move from 10/19, and needn't be much to make an impression here. #5 ONE VISION completes the only troika of runners we'll be using in our rolling bets, as he too is on the dropdown, and also has blinks added. NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Union Express | 2nd -Violent Swing | 3rd -J D Factor |
#7 UNION EXPRESS has only beaten home three critters in his last three outings, but goes over a fast track for the first time this afternoon, and as we think he's much better bred for the brown stuff than the green, we'll take a shot with a slight drop in class and the bug assigned. #8 VIOLENT SWING has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt for the first time today, but went coast to coast like butter and toast in his only one turn deal, and draws ideally for today's cutback. #1 J D FACTOR loses the pistachios and gains the miracle drug in his first try for a new outfit, and despite being out of jail, is confidently hiked up the ladder. Note that the last race has proven to be a key one, with three return winners from just four sui generis events. Watch out. NOTE: AS OF 10:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Central Casting | 2nd -Gaga's Handsome | 3rd -Melancia |
These three should suffice for all our rolling bets. #4 CENTRAL CASTING showed marked improvement when returning off a bit of a freshening, and is once again protected against the purchase. You're not going to get 27-1 on him today, but looms to be a big threat, especially with a tidier beginning. #2 GAGA'S HANDSOME is supported by a solid DRF Formulator statistic, which has this outfit at 4 of 7 with dirt runners not getting Lasix at 5-1 or less, off breaks of 8 to 39 days. The winners for that study came back $11, $5, and $7 x 2. #1 MELANCIA plunges today, and looks to be a 1-2-3 player for those inclined to bet to show.
| Race 6 | 1st -Accidental Bid | 2nd -Creek | 3rd -Houlton |
#2 ACCIDENTAL BID has done okay in his three starts to date, but nonetheless the white flag has now been run up on this $375,000 auction purchase. Blinkers are a part of the makeup for today's third off the bench engagement, and you'd have to think he's sitting on a good one. #5 CREEK was up just that when debuting on the dirt last summer, but the 399 Tomlinson figure tells us to give this one another chance. #1 HOULTON is dropped in class after being claimed nearly 2 months ago, and jockey/trainer combination fare better together than apart.
| Race 7 | 1st -Twenty Four Mamba | 2nd -Dean Delivers | 3rd -Runninsonofagun |
Boy oh boy, whatever happened to what used to be a really cool traditional race on Thanksgiving, with this year's rendition of the Fall Highweight Handicap. Where are the highweights? That being said... #4 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA outran his odds quite nicely when showing at 40-1 in the Bold Ruler, and historically, this one has a win, a second, and a third in just as many third off the bench jammies. We have no qualms in using a runner who hit the board versus tougher at 20-1. #5 DEAN DELIVERS sure is a game sort, and this chestnut trap doesn't need to take his track with him. We positively love the declining mark at today's distance of ground ( 11:5-3-1 ), and should be prominent throughout. #6 RUNNINSONOFAGUN could be rolling late with any sort of pace to cut into, and this one's best work has come beneath the seagulls.
| Race 8 | 1st -Sarir | 2nd -Killy Start | 3rd -Lady Mine |
#1 SARIR returned off a bit of a break to finish a well beaten, but decently clear runnerup down in Lexington last month, and ended up in new barn for all her efforts. She can't be bought again this afternoon, and could go all the way if able to set some easy splits. Meeeekest of choices here. #7 KILLY START is a steady if unspectacular sort who could be coming along late in the game. #3 LADY MINE hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is one for two off of a break in the action, and boy oh boy does that four of five mark at today's distance of ground sure stand out.
| Race 9 | 1st -Uncorrelated | 2nd -Tomacon | 3rd -Noble Huntsman |
#10 UNCORRELATED has been beset by back-to-back layoff lines, but we're assuaged by one of the best DRF Formulator statistics we've seen yet, as Brown is a perfect 9 for 9 with mid level male and dirt runners off sabbaticals of 41-110 days, @ 7/2 or beneath. The return on investment for that study is $4 84, and of course, we love the draw. #5 TOMACON will be brought over by a sharp conditioner who is 5:3-2-0 when entering his dirt equines with a tag for the first time that were OTB last out, and the winners came back a juicy $15, $12, and $25. Could jazz things up a bit. #8 NOBLE HUNTSMAN has been a part of the super in both times when going T to D, and may plod along for a piece
Aqueduct Fall: ( Current ) 23-107 ( $144.60 )Beatable Favorites: 3-6 ( 50% ) Favorite's Win %: 40-107 ( 37.4% ) ( As of Friday morning )
Aqueduct Fall: ( Final ) 53-286 ( $350 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 95-286 ( 33.3% )
Saratoga Summer ( Final ): 85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4369-21328 ($36,148.90) +/-: -15.2% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 478-1799( 26.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 8176-21779( 37% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4399-21943 ( $37,099.40 ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.5% takeout
