11/30 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Just one chalky winner for us here yesterday, on a day when SEVEN favorites came home.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #8 Take Me To Londyn

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

#7 TIZ THE PRINCE stretches out from one turn to two turns for the first time today ( without a layoff in between ), has blinkers reaffixed, and takes the biggest drop in the business. Would only need to find one of those palatable to make an impression here. #1 UNAFFECTED draws snugly for today's return to the Big Apple, and is back in with Empire breds while going from an apprentice to a journeyman. #2 JANSENN has closed out the exacta in five of nine career dirt attempts, but has burned a bit of bread along the way, so we'll leave beneath.

#1 HOURS IN A DAY has been a popular item at the claim box of late, as this fella has had to leave a forwarding address in his last three afternoon treks for the frontside. Recently he was reclaimed by Rice, & seems decently spotted for today's first try against winners. #4 CONNIVING was a hard charging and decently clear runner up at this level a Baker's dozen days ago, and is logical once again. #7 BATTLE OF BRITAIN ( all the info for such, which can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Britain . ) hasn't shown much in either sand start, but we like to give a horse two opportunities under a particular set of circumstances to prove himself, & this one goes one turn on the dirt for the 2nd time. Tossing in because of the sharp current form.

#5 PARTY WITH SMARTY comes in today off of career best figaro, and displayed a bit of a "Z" pattern that day when losing six lengths from the half to the top of the stretch, before regaining half of that from that point to the finish line. Colt goes from a bug to a vet now, but may be overlooked parimutually because of the low percentage outfit. #7 COACH PITINO looks to take New York by Red Storm today, as this late bloomer begins his working life with a couple of bullets on the docket. He'll be 5 years old in a month, so it's safe to say he's gotten Knicked up along the way, but gets an advantageous slot, and should sit a nice trip in a race that is by no means a slam dunk. #3 HE HAS IT ALL has been freshened up a bit after disappointing back in mid August, and gets a jockey change after Katie dropped the whip up north back in August. Given the overall resume', must include.  NOTE: AS OF 10:04, DUE TO TWO KEY LATE SCRATCHES, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-2-6.

#1 TRINITY RIVER has completed the triple in all three turf starts to date, and now switches to the main for the first time, which is fine by us, as we feel he's better bred for it then the green stuff. Should be no worse than third for all y'all who like to grind out a show profit. #2 NEW MATTHEW bested the above in their last encounter, but we feel, he too, is better suited for the brown stuff. Look for these two to be battling in the stretch once again. #4 BIGFOOT SIGHTING could perk up with today's blinker addition.

#1 SNAPPIN BUTTONS had improved over each passing start before something went amiss after the 5/9 placing. Barn does well with returnees of this type, but it's a might disconcerting to see the white flag run up despite this one's successes. Mixed signals, and you should definitely take a peek in the paddock. #2 BELLA VOCE hit the shelf for three months after being cleaned for 40K back in July, and after showing little in the comebacker, is dropped below the price claimed while having blinks slapped on for the first time. This is another one who you should examine pre race. #3 PATTY VAN TWINKLE completes the "Easy as 1-2-3" triple, based on her having missed the superfecta just one time in her ten race career.

#3 GIANT'S AUDIBLE finished in the back half of the pack last time out, but takes the biggest drop in the game and is substantially better suited for the main, than the gramma. There's been a best of 30 bullet breeze since last in action, and believe leaving or not, we feel she lays over this group. BEATABLE FAVORITE/SECONDARY SELECTION: #8 TAKE ME TO LONDYN gave a decent account of herself first time out on Halloween, and drops a couple of pegs off that effort, while getting a jockey who has done some nice work for this outfit. We see her being a few points below our top choice, so will keep beneath. #4 DIABLO'S MISCHIEF totes along a hefty 395 Tommy for today's trip, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a decent effort.

#7 CRAZY MASON hasn't been in action since mid May, and although he's been  beset by back to back layoff lines, he owns some back class, and Sacco does exceptionally well with those returning off elongated absences. Slim margin. #8 VETTRIANO is 3 of 3 beneath the seagulls, and what the hell is wrong with that? #6 IRIDISCENT has been claimed in four of his last five outings, and one can understand why, as usually gives a solid account of himself. Nonetheless, we are going to leave this notorious nibbler beneath, despite the addition of Lasix today.   NOTE: AS OF 10:08, DUE TO TWO KEY LATE SCRATCHES, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-3-4.

#5 AGGELOS THE GREAT completed the triple at 9-1 in a near identical spot 43 days in the rear, and the Beyer speed figure posted that day was a lifetime best. Will make him a timid choice here. #10 WHATCHATAKINABOUT was a lively and nicely clear runner up when returning off a calendar layoff the last out, and despite having improved over his quartet of starts to date, curiously has blinkers removed this afternoon by Ward. Hey man, Diff'rent Strokes. Should be in the thick of things once again. #9 LOCKE AND KEY picked up the lion's share directly in front of a next out victor the only time he went from T to D, and just may surprise in this wide open event.

#3 ALPINE PRINCESS comes in today off of back to back layoffs, but gal has found the line first in her last three starts on a glib surface, and accomplished such in a convincing manner. Looks to be a deserving favorite in this year's rendition of the Comely. #5 LIFE TALK is another one who should have "Fra-gee-lay" stenciled on her side, as she enters off of four consecutive breaks in the action. That being said, she has done well at the trip and over the strip, and can land a share. #2 DOROTHY'S DREAMS gave a solid account when losing by less than a length to 35 to 1 in the mother goose, and while you may not be getting those odds today, should still offer some decent value given the other big outfits entered.

#7 LIBERTE DE BAYEAUX fared quite well when facing winners for the first time, as he grabbed the lead turning for home and managed to finish third at 14-1. That's never an easy thing to accomplish, and as you can draw an upwards arrow alongside all of his speed numbers, who quite knows where the ceiling is with this one. #1 UNLIMITED POTENTIAL has been given a bit of a break since finishing next to last back in August, but has completed the Exacta and both starts after a respite, and we like that he's still protected against the purchase despite having disappointed in his first start off the claim. #5 BRIGADE COMMANDER was a solid runnerup finisher on the turf a few weeks ago, and as he's historically approximately 9.7% better on the dirt then the sod, we can see this one doing even better today.  NOTE: AS OF 10:12, DUE TO TWO KEY LATE SCRATCHES, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-1-4.

Aqueduct Fall: ( Current )                 24-116 ( $149.80 )Beatable Favorites: 3-6    ( 50% )   Favorite's Win %:  47-116 ( 40.5% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Aqueduct Fall: ( Final )                     53-286 ( $350 )     Beatable Favorites: 1-10   ( 10% )   Favorite's Win %:   95-286  ( 33.3% ) 

Saratoga Summer ( Final ):            85-410  ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites:  3-17  ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %:  136-410 ( 33.3% )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% )    Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring  ( Final ):                7-47      ( $31.20 )  Beatable Favorites: N/A                 Favorite's Win %: 19-47   ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct  Spring( Final ):                28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% )    Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% ) 

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):                85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4369-21328 ($36,148.90) +/-: -15.2% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 478-1799( 26.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 8176-21779( 37% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4399-21943 ( $37,099.40 ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.5% takeout