Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -The Taco Lady | 2nd -Shop Lifting | 3rd -On Command |
#2 THE TACO LADY had a nightmare comebacker on All Hallows Eve but still managed to pick up 12% of the pot, while posting a decent speed figure in the process. Logical once again. #1 SHOP LIFTING finished directly ahead of the above in the aforementioned affair, and is another who encountered some traffic that day. Draws inside the above, which could afford that one the opportunity to make the first move. #5 ON COMMAND has cashed checks in every start to date, and makes all kinds of sense today.
| Race 2 | 1st -Broadway Lights | 2nd -Vehemente | 3rd -Island Ride |
After tossing the troubled debut, #6 BROADWAY LIGHTS has hit the board in her last triad, and we like the versatility shown in such that it was accomplished under three different sets of circumstances. Gal draws ideally today, and jockey/trainer combination fare better together than apart. #3 VEHEMENTE returned off a bit of a freshening to procure the sheepskin when winning by a pole right here on November 9th, and while a bounce is always possible off of that kind of effort, we'd be remiss in excluding. #2 ISLAND RIDE is another coming in off of a convincing maiden breaker, and we like any animal shedding weight off a tally.
| Race 3 | 1st -Beary Funny | 2nd -Freeze Pop | 3rd -Masterwork |
#2 BEARY FUNNY showed nada when spotted for a quarter on the 25th of October, and is promptly dropped down in class in his first start for the new connections. They can't all be winners kid, and this fella had hit the board and three straight prior to that. Including a length defeat at 9-1 at this level. Chance to make amends, but was cross-entered yesterday, so check the changes. #7 FREEZE POP has been in hibernation for nearly a year and a half since being claimed for 30 large at the Pea Patch, and is now brought back at half that level while securing a jockey who has done okay for this outfit. Factor if sound and fully cranked up. #4 MASTERWORK was a bit tardy to the party in the most recent, but came along nicely to complete the triple @ double digit odds. We see no reason to dismiss in the spot.
| Race 4 | 1st -Runaway Joke | 2nd -Two For Charging | 3rd -He's Got It |
#4 RUNAWAY JOKE has been anything but, as this one has been a runaway winner in his last quintet. While they were definitely some cheaper critters he was facing up in Canandaigua County, the BSF's garnered from those victories tell us that he belongs with these. Threat to go all the way once again. #5 TWO FOR CHARGING takes the obligatory hike in class after being claimed for 25k on 11/15, and note that the lone returnee from that victory was photogenic when next in action, improving in the speed number area by approximately 3.8%. #1 HE'S GOT IT came along nicely to grab the show dough versus conditional platers last out, and is as good as any to do the same once again. NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Dream Working | 2nd -Lady Wisdom | 3rd -Willful Mama |
#8 DREAM WORKING was an even fourth place finisher when going over the turf for the first time back in October, and now switches back to what we think will be her better service down the road. Barn having a "miraculous" meet thus far, and we'll give this one a slight edge. #4 LADY WISDOM nearly blew up the tote board when losing by just a length at 39-1 on the 20th of October, and as we're going to be a bit forgiving of the troubled dirt debut, another solid effort is quite feasible. #2 WILLFUL MAMA ( "Mama..." ) has closed off the Exacta in her last duet, but as those were on the turf, we are going to relegate to the unders, as the pedigree for the sand is a bit weak.
| Race 6 | 1st -Van Vallenhoven | 2nd -D C Boys | 3rd -Executive Move |
#8 VAN VOLLENHOVEN ( a Dutch legal scholar who celebrated his 150th birthday this past May https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornelis_van_Vollenhoven ) had a little bit of an awkward journey in the lidlifter, but still managed to close out the superfecta at 27-1 beneath today's helmsman. Good guy David Duggan fares quite well when transitioning his equines from green to brown, and we wouldn't be shocked to see a big move forward. #9 D C BOYS has been laid up since the showing back in mid August, and note that the one who finished directly in front of him that day got the job done when next facing the starter. Take a looksee during the warmups. #10 EXECUTIVE MOVE has hit the board in his last quartet, and who are we to rock that boat? NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Pam Pam | 2nd -Valiant Majesty | 3rd -Next On Stage |
#1 PAM PAM has been a popular item at the claim box over her last pair, and w/ good reason, as she's been a part of the triple in her last handful. Filly is protected against the purchase today, as the new shotcaller signs up their go to rider. #6 VALIANT MAJESTY aims for the hat trick today, and although the two wins were versus softer @ Philadelphia park, we have no problems with tossing in a hot hand ( or hoof, for that matter ). #2 NEXT ON STAGE scored by a dozen the last time he was on the sand, and as a matter of fact, he has yet to finish out of the superfecta in nine starts on the stuff. NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Golden Degree | 2nd -Julia Shining | 3rd -Courbe |
#2 GOLDEN DEGREE has won three of her last four, with the lone blemish coming when getting roughed up some at the onset two back. If you're willing to draw a line through that, then this one has ascended the Beyer scale over her last five outings, and how can you fault the three for three record beneath the seagulls? #3 JULIA SHINING has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but girl owns a decent body of work, and must be included because of the back class. #6 COURBE goes turf to dirt and has the wonder drug added for the first time; uncoupled barnmate with our secondary selection has won both starts outside of stakes company. NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 9 | 1st -Naughty Destiny | 2nd -Follow Your Arrow | 3rd -Majulu |
#11 NAUGHTY DESTINY has done some decent work on the verde, and as the Tomlinson figure for the sandy stuff is a bit better, we see no reason why she can't bring that form over to the main. Blinkers are now removed for one who drops a couple of pegs, and of course, we like the draw. #4 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW is another one with very little dirt experience, but didn't do too badly when trying it for the first time back in May, and has the hood slapped on for the first time. #2 MAJULU rounds out the top three.
Aqueduct Fall: ( Current ) 25-126 ( $156 ) Beatable Favorites: 4-7 ( 57.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 47-116 ( 40.5% ) ( As of Sunday morning )
Aqueduct Fall: ( Final ) 53-286 ( $350 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 95-286 ( 33.3% )
Saratoga Summer ( Final ): 85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4369-21328 ($36,148.90) +/-: -15.2% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 478-1799( 26.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 8176-21779( 37% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4399-21943 ( $37,099.40 ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.5% takeout
