Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #1 Maggie T Race 6 - #8 More Than Grace
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Good Mission | 2nd -Solve the Puzzle | 3rd -Yo Leven |
#1 GOOD MISSION merely split the field in her most recent, but is back in with maiden claimers today, and is supported by a solid Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months, this barn is 3 of 6 when giving their locally based dirt dashers the biggest drop in the game, who were off the board 6-50 days in the rear ( and ridden by today's pilot ). The payoffs were $6, $3, and $17, and grey gal once again draws the rail for today's third start off the bench. #4 SOLVE THE PUZZLE was a daylight clear runnerup in this race back in November, and we see no reason to dismiss. #5 YO LEVEN rallied decently to lose by just a bit over two lengths down at Turfway Park last out, and her best effort to date came on going on a fast track; totes the lightest impost of her career.
| Race 2 | 1st -Well Suited | 2nd -M G Dash | 3rd -Daytona Moonshine |
#7 WELL SUITED returned off a bit of a freshening to best only one back in mid November, and ended up in a new barn afterwards. Rice has been quite miraculous thus far on the stand, and she drops this one 33% in class while stretching him out a bit. Slim margin. #6 M G DASH gave a decent account of himself when making his New York debut eight days back, and figures prominent once again. #4 DAYTONA MOONSHINE was privately purchased after the recent flop, and the new connections instantly halve this one in price. Using, but with a touch of trepidation.
| Race 3 | 1st -Mattitude | 2nd -Brzina | 3rd -Killy Start |
#4 MATTITUDE has always been a fairly consistent sort, and comes in today off a nice place and versus similar sort down in maryland. 10% trainer triples that rate with female optional sand sprinters who crashed the party less than two dozen days ago, that are 11-1 or under. The winners came back a healthy $11, $12, and $13, and it's encouraging to see the pilot come in for the mount. #7 BRZINA has been a part of the superfecta in her last 11 outings, and what the hell is wrong with that? #2 KILLY START is three for six when first to load, and was a lively runnerup versus allowance competition on 11/29. NOTE: AS OF 1:44 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-1A-7, WITH THE #1A BEING A BEATABLE FAVORITE SHOULD HER ENTRYMATE DECLARE.
| Race 4 | 1st -Roman Goddess | 2nd -Tipsy Runner | 3rd -Follow Your Arrow |
#7 ROMAN GODDESS is a nibbler by wrote, and that includes having been a part of the superfecta in three of her last four starts, and 10 of her last 12 -- all without a win. We're not quite sure what's going to get her over the hump this afternoon, but what we like is that she has a win and two placings from four starts when made available for purchase. #5 TIPSY RUNNER goes over a fast track for just the second time today, and jock does twice as good for this outfit as he does in all other mounts. #4 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for 16 large on the 27th of December, and as this miss has gone 44-57-71 in all her starts on the main, who quite knows where her ceiling is in that regards. NOTE: AS OF 1:48 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. NOTE: AS Of 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Cara's Dreamweaver | 2nd -Willful Mama | 3rd -Tower Twenty Two |
#3 CARA'S DREAMWEAVER has partaken in the super in four of five starts thus far, and is now in receipt of the miracle drug for the first time. Best effort came beneath today's pilot, and that occurred without blinkers, which are now part of the makeup. Looks to be the lone shot of upsetting our secondary selection, #2 WILLFUL MAMA. That gal showed marked improvement from her first dirt start to the followup, and has completed the exacta in three straight events. Deserving favorite. #6 TOWER TWENTY TWO is a bit weak from a speed figure standpoint, but is another one who's always been the thicker things.
| Race 6 | 1st -Taste of Diamonds | 2nd -Moonlit Drive | 3rd -Delaware Devil |
#3 TASTE OF DIAMONDS gets her working papers this afternoon, and does such with a bullet on the ledger, as well as three gate moves where from a time standpoint, she finished in the top 25% of workers those days. 372 Tommy is honest enough, and 'Miah is two for five with locally based dirsters at this level, who are not getting the Big L and are 33-1 or beneath. The winners came back $14, and $4, and jockey/trainer combination have done well together. #6 MOONLIT DRIVE is another one starting things out this afternoon, and boasts a fat 415 Tomlinson figure for today's deal. #1 DELAWARE DEVIL is decently bred and will be let over by a hot shot caller, but the rail is never an easy spot for a first time starter, so we'll keep beneath. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 MORE THAN GRACE
| Race 7 | 1st -Final Turn entry | 2nd -He's Got This | 3rd - First Glimpse |
Both the #1 SCARAMANGA ( who is supported by a 5 for 18 trainer statistic with today's criteria ), and the #1A BAD LARRY ( who will be led over by a trainer who is 8 of 12 with mid-level dirt entrants who crashed the party 42-46 days ago, that are 6-1 or under ) comprise decent factions of the Final Turn coupled entry. #6 HE'S GOT THIS is a bit out of form these days, but drops in class for the third straight time and may perk up. #7 FIRST GLIMPSE has been quite a popular item at the claim box, as this one has had to leave a forwarding address after his last three outings, and 10 of 18 starts when eligible to be snagged. Aside from that, he owns a decent record at the trip and over the strip, & switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today.
| Race 8 | 1st -Sue Ellen Mishkin | 2nd - Al's Ruby | 3rd - Miss Lao |
#5 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN is an absolute win machine, as this 6 year old mare has found the line first at 9 of 16 dirt affairs, and although she has had layoff lines within her last three starts, she's been cashing checks left and right since last August. Looking good here once again. #3 AL'S RUBY has picked up the lion's share in both starts to date, but as the most recent tally came after an elongated absence, a bounce is always possible. Leaving beneath. #4 MISS LAO has hit the board in her last sextet, and can land a share here.
Aqueduct : 10-41( $44.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win % : 15-41 ( 36.6% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
