1/11 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections - For Bijou...

For Bijou...

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

#2 NARCISO DALI hasn't been seen since early April, but has done okay here, and Papa Engelhart is a swift 5 of 7 with dirt runners at this level right here, at 14-1 or under that are ridden by today's pilot. The payoffs for those winners were $8 X 2, $6, $7, and $11. Additionally, it's always encouraging to see the pre layoff pilot return. #1 JAVA BUZZ played the fade when tangling against tougher last time out, but sheds a whopping 9 lbs off of that heat while getting an apprentice making his second career start in the irons today. From a trainer stat point of review, barn is a snappy 7 of 13 with locally based sand sprinters at this level off breaks of 48 to 49 days. The return on investment for that study is $4.50, and chestnut chap goes over the dirt for just a second time here. #4 VINSANITY owns two wins, a placing, and a showing in as many starts when made available for purchase, and can land a share here.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-3-6.

#4 COMPARATIVE finished in the back half of the pack when returning off of nearly an eight month sabbatical in a Grade 3 event, but despite the poor effort that day, we are assuaged to see that this miss got the job done in her only second off the layoff attempt, and elevated her speed figure by approximately 9.2% in the process. From a trainer stat POV, shedrow is three for five with Aqueduct based sand starters at this level off of layoffs of 20-50 days who are not in receipt of the miracle drug. The winners came back $4, $6, and $8, and jockey/trainer combination do better together than apart. #1 TIZZY IN THE SKY has been a daylight victress in both of her second off the bench engagements, with one of those coming from an inside draw, as well as owning an additional victory the only other time she was first to load. Local ledger of 8:5-2-0 pops off the page, and will likely be the deserving favorite. #5 JULIA SHINING ( uncoupled barnmate with our secondary selection ) came back off of a bit of a hibernation to win in going away fashion versus optional foes on the 1st of December, and sheds 80oz. off that tally.

#6 ALWAYS A WARRIOR was eased in the Maryland event, and as a matter of fact, has not finished in the front half of the pack over his last quintet. That being said, a solid rider is lured today's drop to his lowest level to date, and is the most timid of selections in a race with one first draft elimination. #1 CAMM' DUKE has had trouble at the onset in his last three starts, but is another one entered for an all time low, & recognize that his finest work has come right here in Queens. #3 KING FREUD has been freshened up a bit since failing at The Meadowlands, but is in for an career low on the dirt this afternoon, as Rudy Rod lists the services of a new face in town.  NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 D DAY SKY was an honest enough third place finisher in this race two fortnights back, and slides in seven slots off that effort, while toting along a third best of 43 breeze on 12/28. Keep in mind though, that he raced on his wrong lead in the stretch last out, so take a looksee at this one during the warmups. Should be no worse than third for all of those who like to grind out or show profit. #1 BIG RICH takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for 16k on the 29th of December, but totes along a lifetime best figaro, and Jimmy Ferraro has done well with new purchases over the last few years. #5 SECRET TREASURE was quite gamely when picking up 20% of the pot versus slightly softer and down at Laurel last month, and cuts back from two turns to one for the first time today.

#5 SENOR PANCHO gets his working papers this afternoon, and $40,000 bred animal went for five times that amount about 15 months ago. The 385 Tomlinson figure is solid enough, and January 4th foal has a maturity edge over those who have yet to run. Colt is a full to a first out winner/steaks placed runner, and Rivera is four for six with this barn w/sprinters. #4 ONE NINE HUNDRED is displaying a second best of 117 move 25 days ago for today's lidlifter, and that's something that always merits inclusion for a first time starter. Bay boy is another well bred critter, who seems well suited for this distance. #2 ORGONITE has a couple of decent moves on the work tab and may land a share.  NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#7 TRAFFIC MASTER is in excellent form these days, and shot caller is a snazzy 6:4-2-2 with allowance dirt routers who scored less than 50 days ago, and are beneath the 13-1 watermark while ridden by Sanchez. Those winners paid $8 x 2, $4, and $3, and this one should be able to sit a perfect trip. #2 SCAT TU TAP got up late in the game to defeat easier competition on 12/14, and while a bounce is always possible off the lifetime best dirt fig, we'll chunk in versus these. #6 WAITLIST has been freshened up a bit after the flat performance in October, and it's good to see there's no scary drop for today's return, as well as the jock coming back on.

#10 BERNIETAKESCHARGE faded late in the game when facing open company for just the second time in her career, and apart from having a solid ledger at the Big A, is supported by a strong trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, this 8% clan improves that batting average tenfold with female optional dirt runners off breaks of 19 to 50 days at this locale. They are four for five with that sort, and the winners came back a healthy $25, $8, $6, and $3. #11 FADE TO GREY has never missed a superfecta finish on the sandy stuff, and TP wipes 'em clean with optional dirt sprinters in this zip code who hit the board 28-48 days in the past, that are helmed by this pilot and are 6-1 or beneath. The R.O.I. for that study is $3.77, and this one will look to follow the tire tracks of our top selection. #5 PRIDE'S CROSSING has been in absentia since a visually impressive, first out win in Louisville at the end of May, and makes all kinds of sense if sound and fully cranked up.

#9 I GOT BUSTED is compelled to take the southeastern trek from Finger Lakes, as they've been done racing for about a month now, but that's okay, as this fella scored when debuting here last February. Barrow -- who got our hearts thumpiing pretty good with a 35-1 placing the other day -- is 3 for 10 with dirt sprinters off L/O's of 51-52 days, at 14-1 or undah, and the returns for that survey were $4, $6, and $29 there was a subcategory of one for one right here; grab him by the tail to get the glory. #11 TRA LAD has been away since May, but is 2-2 off a break in the action, and you have to love the declining mark of 11:5-3-0 at today's distance of ground. #12 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS completes our troika of selections returning off a break, based on the decent mark over this oval.

#5 FREE DANCE has amassed a decent set of running lines to begin his working life, and like so many new 3YO's, is for some reason in dire need of Lasix. Be that as it may, this outfit is an unblemished five for five when giving their stock the "Big L" for the first time, with dirt horsies at this level, of absences of 4 to 6 weeks. The payoffs for that survey were $12, $10, $6, $5, and $3, and fellow looks like a major player here. #10 VEKINDA bested the above in their last encounter, but loses 10 slots in the post position department to the above, so we are going to keep beneath, despite the gaudy recent number. #1 JOKER ON FIRE totes the lightest in post yet, and can grab a slice.

Aqueduct : 11-49( $58.20 )   Beatable Favorites: 0-2 ( 0% )  Favorite's Win % : 16-49 ( 32.7% )( As of Saturday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout