Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Additionally, we will be rounding up/down the new "penny breakage" in our stats accordingly, as we do all our numbers by hand, and do we really need to add to our voluminous workload ! Note that we currently have had TWENTY profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Can't Fool Me | 2nd - Scythian | 3rd -Foxy Cara |
#1 CAN'T FOOL ME got up in time to blow up the tote board at 20-1 in this race two fortnights back, and we see no reason a repeat isn't feasible for a runner who should be no worse than second for all of you place punters out there. Factor in that Franco had a grand slam on Saturday. #2 SCYTHIAN seems to have the best shot of upsetting the apple cart if able to get back to either of last years turf tallies, both of which came beneath Junior. #3 FOXY CARA went coast to coast like butter and toast in a dirt deal last out, but goes over the blades for the first time, and although the pedigree is poor for such, perhaps her speed enables her to spice things up a bit.
| Race 2 | 1st -El Grand O | 2nd -Nova Rags | 3rd -Spike Zone |
#1 EL GRANDE O was declared a non starter in the most recent, but may have needed that race anyway, and historically this one has done quite well in second off the bench engagements. Best work has come beneath the seagulls, and Flavor Flav hops on. #2 NOVA RAGS is a steady sort who likes to cash some checks, & has done decent work beneath Alvarado. #5 SPIKE ZONE can be all yours for a hundred large today, and is reacquainted with blinkers after a win and a showing without them. Jock has done okay here with limited starters, and it's hard to look past this one's 50% win rate on the brown stuff.
| Race 3 | 1st -Aperitif | 2nd -No Ordinary Love | 3rd -Sassetti |
#9 APERITIF has been a different animal since switching over to the green stuff, having outrun his parimutual offering in all three starts on the blades. Gal did well when last to load back in August, completing the exacta when closing with a flourish. Looking good once again. #4 NO ORDINARY LOVE got smacked around a little bit in the most recent, & as that also came over a course with some give to it, we are willing to forgive it a bit, and look at the sharp penultimate showing. #7 SASSETTI has partaken in the superfecta in 3 or 4, but we're going to keep beneath, as Katie has been a bit camera shy this meet.
| Race 4 | 1st -Leading Contender | 2nd -Leftembehind | 3rd -Frizzante |
#3 LEADING CONTENDER returned off a bit of a freshening to merely split the field 26 days back, but as he has completed the exacta in two of three second off the bench deals, we are expecting some improvement in today's second start off the claim. Best work has come @ today's distance of ground, and this lightly raced six year old rates a slight edge. #5 LEFTEMBEHIND overcame some trouble to finish a daylight clear runnerup in this race in the Adirondacks, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for his efforts. Both returnees from that deal have rung up a win and a fourth place finish next out, with an average speed figure improvement of 12.5 points per. Recognize the upgrade in the stirrups. #8 FRIZZANTE has been kept in jail perfectly since being snagged for today's price back on 9/13, and although he's a notorious nibbler, we like the hot jock climbing aboard, as well.
| Race 5 | 1st -Neigh Baby | 2nd -Hong Kong Phooey | 3rd -Life Is Gravy |
#6 NEIGH BABY showed some nice improvement when falling short by only a noggin at the end of August, and the pedigree tells us there's plenty of upside with this one. Slight edge in a race with only one first draft elimination. #7 HONG KONG PHOOEY finished directly behind the above in their recent encounter, and gets off the rail this afternoon while hopefully encountering less trouble. Must incorporate if you are using the above. #10 LIFE IS GRAVY draws sweetly for today's lidlifter, and has a nicely tucked away top 12% gate move in preparation for this
| Race 6 | 1st -That's Funny | 2nd -Adrian | 3rd -Cararra |
#2 THAT'S FUNNY has done nothing but improve with each and every one turn dirt deal, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Lone tally came over this oval, and gal gets her best rider yet. Things to like in a wide open event. #1 ADRIAN is another one for whom you could draw an upwards arrow alongside the dirt Beyers, and as she lost by only a noggin in this race on September 11th, we'd be quite punchy to exclude. #8 CARARRA has blinkers added for the first time and could rebound off the recent disappointment.
| Race 7 | 1st -Spoken Bluntly | 2nd -Alexis Zorba | 3rd -Let It Ride |
#5 SPOKEN BLUNTLY has yet to miss the superfecta since getting on the green stuff, with his finest work haven't come beneath today's helmsman. Gelding digs it in Ozone Park, and is the most timid of choices in a race that's difficult to decipher. #8 ALEXIS ZORBA has the ability to send or rate just a bit, but as he always seems to prefer the fringes, we are going to relegate to the unders. #7 LET IT RIDE ( an excellent movie, obviously ) hasn't been in action since late April, but has done okay off a hibernation, and is an obvious factor if sound and fully cranked up.
| Race 8 | 1st -Sunday Boy | 2nd -Jack's World | 3rd - A Little at First |
#1 SUNDAY BOY overcame a clumsy beginning to rally strongly when losing his turf debut by less than a length 18 days in the rear, and although he may have outran his pedigree that day, we're assuaged by the solid DRF Formulator statistic in play. Over the last 60 months, Ryerson is three of four with sod starters not receiving the miracle drug at 15-1 or less, off of breaks of no more than 36 days; the winners came back $7 X 2 and $25. #2 JACK'S WORLD is another who didn't have the smoothest of sojourns when going over the verde for the first time, but picks up Flavor Flav, and could improve off of that. #5 A LITTLE AT FIRST could plod along for a piece. NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct ( Current ): 36-150( $230.30 )Beatable Favorites: 4-5( 80% )Favorite's Win %: 45-150 ( 30% ) ( As of Monday morning )
Saratoga ( Final ): 86-420( $669 )Beatable Favorites: 9-25 ( 36% ) Favorite's Win %: 156-420 ( 37.1% )
Saratoga ( Final ): 10-44 ( $88.10 )Beatable Favorites: 0-5 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 13-44 ( 29.5% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 64-263( $391 )Beatable Favorites: 2-6 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 103-263 ( 39.6% )
Bel @Saratoga ( Final ): 8-59 ( $71.40 )Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 23-59 ( 39% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 35-140 ( $200.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-6 ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 64-140 ( 45.7% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 90-388( $685.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-18( 32.5% ) Favorite's Win % : 151-388( 38.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-25 (All Final):4709-22871 ($38,484.70) +/-: -15.8% against a 16.2% takeout
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 501-1872( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 8768-23421( 37.4% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4739-23506 ( $39,498.10 ) +/-: -16% against a 16.5% takeout
